03 May 2024, Friday, 13:04 261

NBU predicts slowdown in economic growth to 3% in 2024 due to loss of energy infrastructure

Editor: Daria Zubkova

Читати українською

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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that economic growth will slow to 3% in 2024, including due to the loss of energy infrastructure and an expected electricity shortage (about 5%, according to the NBU).

This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

In 2025-2026, GDP growth will accelerate due to faster normalization of conditions for economic activity - up to 5.3% and 4.5%, respectively.

This will be facilitated by the improvement of consumer and investment sentiments, as well as the gradual return of migrants and progress in European integration reforms.

As a result, real GDP will approach its potential level at the end of 2026.

Labor demand continues to grow in 2024, while supply remains constrained due to further out-migration, mobilization, adaptation needs of IDPs, and increasing labor market disparities.

Rapid growth in the demand for workers in conditions of limited supply has led to a reduction in the unemployment rate.

The results of population surveys testified to the improvement of the employment situation.

As a result, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its estimates of the unemployment rate last year - from 19% to 18.2%, as well as the forecast for the following years.

The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 14.2% in 2024, and to 10-12% in 2025-2026.

However, it will still exceed pre-invasion levels due to changes in the structure of the economy, external and internal migration, uneven recovery by region and industry, and thus a widening mismatch between the needs of employers and the skills of workers.

Difficulties in finding qualified workers by employers in conditions of revival of economic activity will lead to further increase in incomes of the population.

Already next year, real wages in the economy will exceed their pre-war level and will continue to grow, in particular due to increased competition for labor with foreign employers.

It is forecast that this year the incomes of the population in real terms, i.e. excluding inflation, will grow by 8.1%, and in the next two years by another 6.5% and 3%, respectively.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in 2023, according to operational data, the real gross domestic product increased by 5.3% compared to 2022 (in constant 2021 prices) to UAH 6,537.825 billion (in actual prices).