The 0.5% decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in January–March 2026 indicates an economic "slowdown" and a serious problem. Danylo Hetmantsev, the chairman of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy (from the Servant of the People faction), has reported this on his Telegram channel, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
"Currently, the decline in real GDP serves as an indicator of an economic 'slowdown'—and such dynamics often take on a wave-like character in wartime conditions. At the same time, despite a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter contraction (seasonally adjusted), the 0.5% year-on-year decline already points to a serious problem: the economy is effectively losing its growth momentum. In other words, the moderate recovery that lasted from 2023 to 2025 has begun to run out of steam without new drivers. And although today’s decline is small, it is dangerous for other reasons—it is structural,” he noted.
According to the MP, this is precisely why Ukraine needs systemic solutions to attract investment—both domestic and foreign—develop the defense industry, increase the share of processing, intensify the fight against the shadow economy, and support business.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, according to the State Statistics Service, in January–March 2026, real gross domestic product (GDP), according to preliminary data, decreased by 0.5% compared to the same period in 2025; compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP decreased by 0.7% (seasonally adjusted).
In 2025, GDP increased by 1.8% compared to 2024 (in constant 2021 prices) to UAH 8,931.2 billion (in current prices).
The 2026 state budget was drafted based on a macroeconomic forecast projecting 2.4% GDP growth.
In April, the National Bank downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.3% for 2026. At the same time, according to the NBU’s estimates, GDP growth slowed to 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter. Reasons: enemy attacks on the energy and logistics sectors during the winter, as well as delays in the receipt of international aid.
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