The National Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast downward from 1.8% to 1.3% for 2026.
This is stated in the NBU data, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
At the beginning of 2026, economic activity slowed, primarily due to the consequences of russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure and logistics facilities amid a very cold winter. Restrained fiscal policy also had an impact, given delays in the receipt of foreign aid. Economic activity picked up somewhat as energy shortages eased in the spring, but overall, real GDP growth in the first quarter slowed to 0.2% year-on-year, according to NBU estimates.
An increase in budget spending as international aid flows in will help revive the economy over the coming months. At the same time, given the weaker first-quarter results, the still-precarious state of the power grid, and the accumulation of negative economic effects from the war in the Middle East, the NBU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%.
As conditions for Ukraine’s economic functioning gradually normalize and geopolitical tensions ease, real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8–3.7% in 2027–2028. This will be driven primarily by steady consumer demand, a revival of investment activity, the restoration of the power grid, and increased crop yields.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, at the beginning of the year, the NBU downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.8% for 2026.
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