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Strikes on russian refineries threaten fuel shortages and inflation - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed the consequences of attacks by Ukrainian forces on russian oil refineries, noting that this could provoke a gasoline crisis in the russian federation, push up inflation and undermine the country's macroeconomic stability.

On August 28, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported drone strikes on two large facilities: the Kuibyshev refinery in the Samara Oblast and the Afip refinery in the Krasnodar Krai. Both enterprises are of strategic importance - they process more than 13 million tons of oil annually and provide fuel for the russian military sector.

According to ISW, the destruction of these plants led to serious economic consequences: the russian government extended the ban on gasoline exports, but even such measures could not curb the shortage and the jump in prices.

Analysts predict that the increase in fuel prices will lead to higher prices for goods and services, increasing financial pressure on both the population and business. This, in turn, may trigger an inflationary spiral in russia.

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The report notes that attacks by Ukrainian drones, along with scheduled maintenance of refineries, led to record losses in russian oil refining in August 2025.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on the night of August 28, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a number of important facilities of the russian aggressor, in particular, they attacked the Afipsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar Krai and the Kuibyshev refinery in the Samara Oblast.

In the Sakhalin Oblast of the russian federation, the sale of gasoline to the population was banned amid a rapid decline in fuel reserves in the region.

Belarus is in no hurry to help the russian federation with its fuel shortage, preferring to sell gasoline to other countries at a higher price.

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On August 21, it became known about the emergence of a gasoline shortage in three regions of russia.

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