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Actual inflation in February lower than NBU's forecast

The actual rate of price growth was lower than the trajectory of the National Bank's forecast published in the Inflation Report for January 2024.

This is stated in the message of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian News Agency reports.

Year-on-year (y/y) consumer inflation slowed to 4.3% in February 2024 from 4.7% in January.

In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.3%.

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Raw products became cheaper, the prices of fuel, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products grew at lower rates.

At the same time, fundamental inflationary pressure, reflected in the core inflation index, eased less noticeably in February than the NBU expected.

This is due in particular to the effects of the blockade of the western borders, which caused the price of certain food and non-food products to rise.

The prices were also pressured by the gradual increase in wages in the conditions of a shortage of personnel on the labor market.

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The prices of eggs have fallen significantly in annual terms thanks to the increase in production and the reorientation of producers to the domestic market.

The effects of last year's high harvests supported the further decrease in the price of sugar, cereals and flour.

The cost of greenhouse products, in particular tomatoes and cucumbers, has decreased.

The increase in the price of meat, in particular pork and poultry, slowed down.

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Due to the warm weather and increased sales of products from warehouses, the price of individual vegetables of the borshch set increased more slowly.

In contrast, the price of potatoes and apples remained high due to the limited supply of quality products.

The growth of prices for raw milk slightly accelerated due to the reduction in the supply of imported products.

Then, the price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased more slowly due to the reduction of pressure from the side of production costs and pressure from the side of illegal products.

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The moratorium on raising tariffs for housing and utility services for the population further restrained administrative inflation.

Instead, the growth of prices for pharmaceutical products accelerated.

Fuel prices resumed growth in February.

This is due primarily to logistical difficulties, which primarily affected the price of automobile gas, as well as the rise in global oil prices.

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As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the National Bank expects a moderate acceleration of inflation in the second half of 2024.

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