The National Bank expects a moderate acceleration of inflation in the second half of 2024.
This is evidenced by the data of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
According to NBU estimates, inflation will remain within the target range of 5% ± 1 p.p. in the coming months and will only accelerate moderately in the second half of the year.
The gradual growth of incomes of Ukrainians and the increased costs of business in the conditions of war will fuel inflationary pressure.
At the same time, fixing individual housing and communal tariffs and monetary policy of the NBU aimed at maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia assets and exchange rate stability will continue to limit the growth of consumer prices.
The key risk for inflation dynamics and economic development remains the course of a full-scale war.
The January macro-forecast of the NBU was based on the assumption of a significant improvement in the security situation since 2025, but the risk of russia's protracted aggression against Ukraine remains.
The ongoing war will hamper the economic recovery and complicate the NBU's task of keeping inflation close to the 5% target during 2025-2026.
The risk of insufficient international funding remains, but recently there have been positive developments in this issue.
Thus, at the end of February, the Council of the European Union approved the launch of the Ukraine Facility tool with a total volume of EUR 50 billion for 2024-2027.
Within its borders, already in March, Ukraine should receive transitional financing of EUR 4.5 billion.
Ukraine has also reached an agreement at the staff level on the third revision of the program with the International Monetary Fund and is awaiting the decision of the Board of Directors of the Fund in a week.
In total, in March-April, Ukraine can receive more than USD 10 billion.
Activation of foreign aid revenues in the near future will allow to significantly increase the volume of international reserves.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in January of this year, the National Bank maintained its forecast for GDP growth by 3.6% and improved its inflation forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 8.6% according to the results of 2024.
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