The actual rate of price growth was lower than the trajectory of the National Bank's forecast published in the January 2024 Inflation Report.
This is stated in the message of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Food prices rose more slowly than expected, and prices for fuel, transport and tobacco products rose at lower rates.
Fundamental inflationary pressure, reflected in the core inflation indicator, also eased in January, although less noticeably than the NBU expected.
The increase in the price of processed food products continued to slow down (to 5.5% y/y).
This is explained by the further reflection of the effects of good harvests, in particular, the reduction of pressure from the side of business expenses for food raw materials and feed.
The growth of prices for bread, flour and confectionery products, and meat products slowed down.
The drop in sunflowerseed oil prices deepened and the rise in prices of its processing products slowed down.
At the same time, the price of fish and dairy products accelerated.
The latter may be a consequence of the blocking of borders, which has caused a lower supply of imported products, additional logistics costs and shorter terms for the sale of these goods.
Prices for non-food products decreased slightly (by 0.2% y/y) primarily due to the deepening fall in prices for clothing and footwear.
In contrast, prices for other non-food items, including electronics and household appliances, slowed down compared to December.
The rate of growth in the cost of services slowed down to 10.1% year-on-year in January.
Cafe and restaurant services became more expensive under the influence of reduced pressure from the cost of food raw materials.
Growth in the cost of medical, veterinary, financial services, insurance, car maintenance, movie theaters, and dry cleaning has also slowed down.
On the other hand, individual housing maintenance services and personal care services became more expensive due to both increased demand and a shortage of qualified personnel.
The growth of milk prices slowed down against the background of a reduction in exports and a corresponding increase in the volume of raw materials on the domestic market.
The cost of eggs in annual terms decreased significantly thanks to the increase in production and the reorientation of producers to the domestic market.
Cereals and flour fell further, reflecting low export prices and increased production.
The drop in sugar prices deepened due to the high harvest of sugar beets.
Instead, the price of borscht vegetables rose sharply due to a reduction in the supply of quality products.
Tomatoes rose in price faster due to the arrival of more expensive greenhouse products, and apples - due to limited domestic supply.
The fall in citrus prices also slowed down.
Then, the price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased more slowly due to the reduction of pressure from the side of production costs and significant pressure from the side of illegal products.
The moratorium on raising tariffs for housing and utility services for the population further restrained administrative inflation.
Instead, the growth of prices for some medicines accelerated against the background of both higher import prices and increased demand due to the seasonal incidence of influenza and SARS.
Fuel prices were almost at the level of January last year.
This is caused primarily by the decrease in world oil prices and the diversification of fuel supply routes.
In January, inflation slowed down faster than forecast.
Such dynamics were caused by the increase in the supply of certain food products, the secondary effects of significant harvests, the decrease in world oil prices and the further effect of the moratorium on the increase of tariffs for housing and utility services.
At the same time, the favorable effects of the temporary factors of reducing inflationary pressure are gradually running out, and the risks of increasing inflationary pressure remain, primarily due to the impact of the war.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in January 2024, consumer prices rose by 0.4%.
Inflation was recorded at 5.1% in 2023, 26.6% inflation in 2022, 10.0% inflation in 2021, 5.0% inflation in 2020, 4.1% inflation in 2019.
In 2023, core inflation was 4.9%.
The state budget for 2024 foresees an increase in consumer prices (December to December of the previous year) - 9.7%.
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