The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes that a significant reduction in security risks will occur no earlier than 2025.
This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
A high level of uncertainty regarding the duration and intensity of full-scale war remains.
As before, the NBU assumes that a significant reduction in security risks will occur no earlier than 2025.
In case of a longer period of active hostilities, additional economic losses and more significant inflationary pressure are expected.
Also, the risks of the rhythmicity of the receipt of external financial aid were partially realized.
At the same time, the NBU expects the rhythm of external financing to be restored in the near future.
The foundation for this, in particular, is the successful completion of the second review of the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program for Ukraine and the relevant assurances from international partners, which are an integral part of this program.
The National Bank of Ukraine also takes into account the high adaptability of Ukrainian business and citizens to the challenges of wartime, which largely neutralizes the negative effects of certain risks.
An example of this is, in particular, the much faster than expected increase in exports through the new sea corridor.
The expansion of maritime logistics made it possible to completely replace the stopped "grain corridor" and mitigate the consequences of trade and transport restrictions on the part of individual EU countries.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Head of the President's Office, Andrii Yermak, believes that the war in Ukraine may end suddenly, while, in his opinion, there are still "30 hardest meters" ahead, if you compare the current military confrontation with russia to a 100-meter race.
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