The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) improved the inflation forecast from 14.8% to 10.6% in 2023.
This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Taking into account the favorable dynamics of the first half of the year, the NBU significantly improved the inflation forecast for this year - from 14.8% to 10.6%.
Price growth will slow down due to a gradual decline in global inflation and still rather tight monetary conditions in Ukraine.
The NBU will ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and a sufficient level of attractiveness of hryvnia assets, which will limit price pressure.
The unchanged tariffs for most housing and utility services will be of great importance.
At the same time, inflation will decrease more slowly in the future than in previous months.
This is due to the exhaustion of the effect of the comparison base, the return of the pre-war level of fuel taxation and the June increase in electricity prices for household consumers.
In addition, the Russian terrorist attacks in the south of Ukraine, in particular the blowing up of the Kakhovka HEPP, will affect the price dynamics to some extent.
In the following years, the downward trend in inflation will continue.
The NBU expects inflation to decrease to 8.5% in 2024, and to 6% in 2025.
At the same time, the economy is showing resilience to the new challenges of the war and will grow by 2.9% this year.
The growth of domestic demand in conditions of stable functioning of the energy system and macro-financial stability contributed to the further recovery of economic activity.
However, the growth of the economy was limited by constant missile attacks, sabotage of the "grain corridor" and new destruction of infrastructure facilities.
The National Bank of Ukraine moderately increased the forecast of real GDP growth in 2023 - from 2.0% to 2.9%.
In the future, economic growth will accelerate, taking into account the assumptions of the NBU forecast about the reduction of security risks in mid-2024.
Exports will resume more actively after the sea logistics are improved and the shelling of the infrastructure stops.
The gradual return of migrants will contribute to the revival of consumer demand, and investments will increase significantly during the country's reconstruction phase.
Soft fiscal policy will continue to play an important role in stimulating the economy - the budget deficit will remain significant due to the need to maintain defense capability and economic recovery.
With this in mind, the NBU forecasts real GDP growth in 2024 by 3.5%, and in 2025 - by 6.8%.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in June 2023, consumer prices rose by 0.8%.
In January-June 2023, inflation was 4.6%.
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