ICU forecasts GDP growth of 5.8% in 2023 and 6.4% and devaluation of hryvnia to 42.1 UAH/USD in 2024.
This is stated in the company's materials, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The current state and dynamics of the Ukrainian economy continue to significantly exceed expectations due to the uninterrupted inflows of international financial assistance.
"GDP growth may be more than 5% this year, because the improvement of the security situation has significantly increased the positive expectations and production plans of the business. On the demand side, GDP growth is supported by household consumption. The gradual increase in real incomes of the population, combined with a significant increase in the share of income allocated to current consumption, makes household spending a powerful engine of economic recovery," the ICU notes.
At the same time, it is reported that inflation is slowing very rapidly and will decrease to 10.5-11.5% by the end of the year due to a combination of a number of favorable factors.
It will continue to be in the range of 10-13% during 2024.
Good prospects for further easing of inflation risks leave the NBU with no choice but to start easing monetary policy since July.
"We expect the discount rate to be reduced to 20% by the end of the year," the ICU noted.
The NBU is increasingly inclined to introduce some flexibility in exchange rate formation so that market forces help to slightly reduce external imbalances.
"However, we expect that the NBU will be ready to move to a change in the exchange rate regime only at the end of the first quarter of 2024, so at least until the end of this year, the official rate will remain at the current level of 36.6 UAH/USD," the statement said.
The implementation of the state budget as a whole goes according to plan, and external loans and grants remain the only source of financing for the fiscal deficit.
The ratio of public debt to GDP will approach 90% at the end of the year.
However, the soft payment schedule for it means that high debt levels will not create noticeable pressure on the liquidity of public finances in the next few years.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the international rating agency Fitch predicts GDP growth in Ukraine by 3.5% in 2023 with inflation of 14.5%.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.