The Fitch Ratings international rating agency predicts GDP growth of Ukraine by 3.5% in 2023 with inflation of 14.5%.
This is stated in the message of the agency, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
According to the forecast, GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2023 and by 4% in 2024 after a contraction of 29% in 2022.
According to agency experts, consumption will recover somewhat on easing fears of a wider military escalation, but investment is still in a depressed state.
The agency predicts that inflation will decrease to 14.5% at the end of this year and to 12.7% on average in 2024.
At the same time, the NBU can reduce the discount rate by 5 percentage points to 20%.
Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to rise this year to 17.3% of GDP from nearly 16% of GDP (25% of GDP excluding international grants) last year due to war-related spending and a reduction in the grant component of fiscal support.
Fitch also predicts that the national debt will grow to 85% of GDP at the end of 2023 and to 94% at the end of 2024, while last year it increased by 30 percentage points to 78.5% of GDP.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, Fitch Ratings affirmed the long-term default rating of the issuer Ukraine in foreign currency at CC.
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