The business has positively evaluated the current results of its activities for the third month in a row.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates every month, excluding the forced break in March - May 2022, reports Ukrainian News Agency.
The decrease in the rate of growth of raw materials and energy costs, the gradual adjustment of production and logistics chains, the improvement of inflation and exchange rate expectations, the revival of domestic demand contributed to the positive expectations of the respondents.
In June 2023, the BAEI remained above the neutral level (50 points), rising to 50.8 compared to 50.5 in May.
Construction enterprises provided the most optimistic estimates of the results of their activities thanks to favorable weather conditions, the need to expand western logistics, construction and rehabilitation of roads: the sectoral index in June was 58.6 (51.3 in May).
Construction enterprises significantly increased their expectations regarding the growth of construction volumes, new orders, raw materials and materials purchases, maintained moderately high expectations regarding the growth of the purchase of contractors' services, and lowered their expectations regarding their availability to a neutral level.
For the fourth time in a row, trade enterprises positively assessed the results of their activities thanks to stable consumer sentiment, an increase in the supply of goods and a slowdown in inflation: the sectoral index in June was 52.5 compared to 52.7 in May.
The respondents expected an increase in the volume of turnover and volume of purchases of goods for sale.
As in the previous month, they were set on a slower rise in prices of goods purchased for sale, lowered their estimates for the increase in purchase prices and maintained expectations for a decrease in trade margins.
Industrial enterprises improved estimates of their economic results thanks to lower growth rates of raw material and energy costs, restoration of production and logistics chains, slowing of inflation rates: the sectoral index in June was 51.0 compared to 50.4 in May.
Respondents continued to expect an increase in the volume of manufactured products and the volume of new orders.
At the same time, unlike the previous month, they expected a decrease in the volume of new export orders for products and slightly weakened the negative estimates of the volume of unfinished production (unfulfilled orders).
For the second month in a row, services companies were the only sector to maintain negative ratings on their economic prospects, given the low solvency of the population, weak demand and logistics problems: the sectoral index stood at 48.9, unchanged from May.
Respondents were negative about the volume of new orders, while at the same time, for the third month in a row, they expected an increase in the volume of services provided and services in the process of fulfillment.
Despite the softening of the forecasts of some respondents, high expectations regarding the growth of purchase prices, as well as prices/tariffs for own products/services, remained. Estimates of employment were mixed.
For the first time in a long time, respondents in the construction and service sectors expected an increase in the total number of employees, while industrial and trade enterprises expected a decrease.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from June 5 to 22, 2023.
491 enterprises took part in the survey.
Among the surveyed enterprises, 45.2% were industrial companies, 28.9% were in the service sector, 21.0% were in trade, and 4.9% were in construction; 32.4% of respondents are large enterprises, 30.5% are medium-sized enterprises, and 37.1% are small enterprises.
32.2% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.8% - only export operations, 16.9% - only import operations, 41.1% - do not carry out external economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - company managers, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly indexes of expectations of business activity are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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