Business, having adapted to the conditions of a full-scale war, in April positively evaluated the results of its activity compared to the previous month for the first time since October 2021.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) calculates every month, excluding the forced break in March - May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The improvement in the energy supply situation, the increase in the supply of food and fuel, the improvement of inflation and exchange rate expectations, and the improvement of consumer attitudes of the population had a positive effect on the expectations of enterprises in most sectors.
In April 2023, the BAEI increased to 51.5 from 49.5 in March, crossing the neutral level (50 points), indicating expectations for production growth.
For the second time in a row, trade enterprises gave the most optimistic assessments of the results and prospects of their activities, taking into account the slowdown in inflationary pressure, the revival of consumer demand and the increase in the supply of goods: the sectoral index in April rose to 57.6 from 53.6 in March.
Respondents improved their expectations regarding turnover and volume of purchases of goods for sale.
Despite strengthening estimates for the increase in purchase prices, for the first time since July 2019, they expected an increase in trade margins.
Industrial companies expect their economic results to grow for the second month in a row amid improved logistics, reduced production costs to restore energy supplies and stabilize fuel prices: the sectoral index stood at 50.5 in April compared to 51.2 in March.
Respondents expect growth, albeit at a slightly lower rate than a month ago, in the volume of manufactured products and the volume of new orders, including export ones.
As long as the estimates of the volumes of unfinished production (unfulfilled orders) remain negative, at the same time, expectations regarding the growth of finished product balances have weakened somewhat.
Businesses in the services sector continued to moderate negative assessments of their economic outlook thanks to a gradual recovery in demand, an improvement in the energy supply situation and seasonality, with the sector index at 48.8 compared to 45.7 in March.
Respondents significantly moderated the negative estimates regarding the volume of new orders, while at the same time expecting an increase in the volume of services provided and services in the process of execution.
Construction enterprises gave the most restrained estimates among other sectors regarding their economic results, given the low financial capacity of consumers, lack of investment and unfavorable weather conditions: the sectoral index in April was 44.9 (in March - 45.9).
In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of construction, and also strengthened negative estimates regarding the volume of new orders.
Builders did not forecast changes in the volume of purchases of raw materials and materials, at the same time, they maintained expectations regarding the increase in the volume of purchases of contractor services.
Most of the enterprises participating in the surveys, despite a certain softening of forecasts, maintained high expectations regarding the growth of purchase prices, as well as tariffs for their own products/services.
Respondents' assessments of employment have softened: trade enterprises expect an increase in the number of employees for the first time since January 2022, the rest of the polled sectors predict lower rates of staff reduction than in previous months.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from April 4 to 21, 2023. 481 enterprises took part in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 46.6% were industrial companies, 28.7% were in the service sector, 20.8% were in trade, and 4.0% were in construction; 33.1% of respondents are large enterprises, 30.6% are medium-sized enterprises, and 36.4% are small enterprises.
33.5% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% - only export operations, 16.4% - only import operations, 41.2% - do not carry out external economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - company managers, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly indexes of expectations of business activity are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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