For the second month in a row, business has positively evaluated the current results of its activities, despite the ongoing full-scale war.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates every month, excluding the forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The successful restoration of the energy system, the revival of domestic demand, in particular thanks to the gradual return of Ukrainians from abroad, as well as the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate, contributed to the respondents' positive sentiments regarding the economic results in the near future.
In May 2023, the BAEI remained above the neutral level (50 points) and was 50.5 against 51.5 in April.
Construction enterprises improved their estimates most significantly compared to other sectors and for the first time in a year and a half expected an increase in their economic results due to the seasonal factor, the gradual resumption of work of most domestic manufacturers of construction materials and the revival of demand: the sectoral index in May was 51.3 (in April - 44.9).
The respondents expected an increase in the volume of construction and the volume of purchases of raw materials and materials, and also did not predict changes in the volume of new orders.
Builders significantly increased their expectations for the growth of the procurement of contractor services and slightly improved their forecasts for the availability of contractors.
Trade enterprises weakened slightly, but maintained the most optimistic estimates of the results and prospects of their activities, given the revival of consumer demand and the slowdown in inflation: the sectoral index in May was 52.7 compared to 57.6 in April.
Respondents maintained high ratings regarding turnover and volume of purchases of goods for sale.
At the same time, they were set on a slower increase in the price of goods purchased for sale, lowered their estimates for the growth of purchase prices and renewed expectations for a decrease in trading margins.
For the third month in a row, industrial enterprises expected their economic results to grow thanks to reliable energy supplies and new logistics routes: the sector index stood at 50.4 in May, compared with 50.5 in April.
The respondents expected the volume of manufactured products and volumes of new orders, including export ones, to grow at a higher rate than a month ago.
At the same time, negative estimates of the volumes of unfinished production (unfulfilled orders) increased somewhat.
Enterprises in the service sector were the only ones among other sectors to maintain negative assessments of their economic prospects: the sectoral index stood at 48.9 compared to 48.8 in April.
For the second month in a row, respondents predicted an increase in the volume of services provided and for the first time since October 2021, they expected an increase in the volume of new orders, instead, they gave negative assessments regarding the volume of services in the process of execution.
Most of the enterprises participating in the surveys maintained high expectations regarding the growth of purchase prices for raw materials and supplier goods, as well as tariffs for their own products/services.
Employment estimates remain subdued.
Respondents of all sectors included in the survey are not inclined to increase the total number of employees.
The least pessimistic assessments are in enterprises in the service sector.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from May 4 to 24, 2023. 487 enterprises took part in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 45.4% were industrial companies, 29.8% were in the service sector, 20.5% were in trade, and 4.3% were in construction; 32.2% of respondents are large enterprises, 30.4% are medium-sized enterprises, and 37.4% are small enterprises.
32.2% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.0% - only export operations, 17.0% - only import operations, 41.7% - do not carry out external economic operations.
The results of the surveys reflect only the opinion of the respondents - managers of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the monthly business activity expectations index is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indexes are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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