The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced the forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine by 21% to 16.5 million tons and corn - by 18.5% to 22 million tons in the 2022/2023 marketing year (July 2022 - June 2023).
This follows from a statement by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club association, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"According to the updated forecasts of the USDA, in 2023/24, Ukraine's indicators of wheat and corn production decreased by 4.4 million tons to 16.5 million tons and by 5 million tons to 22 million tons, respectively, compared to the indicators of the MY2022/2023. At the same time, the indicators of wheat and corn exports also decreased: by 5 million tons to 10 million tons and by 9 million tons to 16.5 million tons, respectively," the report says.
It is noted that global wheat forecasts for the MY2023/2024 predict an increase in production and a decrease in trade, consumption, and ending stocks compared to the MY2022/2023.
Thus, world production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tons, 1.7 million tons more than the previous year.
Production increases in several countries, including Argentina (by 6.9 million tons to 19.5 million tons), Canada (by 3.2 million tons to 37 million tons), China (by 2.3 million tons to 140 million tons), the EU (by 4.7 million tons to 139 million tons) and India (by 6 million tons to 110 million tons), compensates for a significant drop in Australia (by 10 million tons to 29 million tons), Russia (by 10.5 million tons to 81.8 million tons), Ukraine (by 4.4 million tons to 16.5 million tons) and Kazakhstan (by 2.4 million tons to 16.4 million tons).
"The largest increase is in Argentina, where production is expected to recover after a significant drought. Near-record production is forecast in Canada on increased acreage. EU production is forecast to be higher thanks to sufficient above-average rainfall in almost all EU countries except Spain and Portugal. Production in Russia is forecast to lower due to lower acreage and yields compared to last year's record. Ukraine is forecast to decrease production due to the war with Russia. After three consecutive record harvests, Australia's wheat production is forecast to decline significantly as yields return to average," the message says.
World trade in wheat in MY2023/2024 is forecast at 210 million tons, 5.2 million tons less than in MY2022/2023.
At the same time, Russia is expected to become the largest wheat exporter again.
Forecasted final wheat stocks in MY2023/2024 decreased by 1.9 million tons to 264.3 million tons.
It is also noted that the global corn market in MY2023/2024 is expected to record production and use compared to the previous year, as well as higher ending stocks.
World production of corn in MY2023/24 is forecast at a record level of 1,219.6 million tons, up 69.4 million tons year over year.
The most significant increase in production volumes will occur in the United States (by 39 million tons to 387.8 million tons), Argentina (by 17 million tons to 54 million tons), the EU (by 11.3 million tons to 64.3 million tons), China ( by 2.8 million tons to 280 million tons) and Serbia.
The forecast of the final world stocks of corn in MY2023/2024 increased compared to the previous year by 15.5 million tons to 312.9 million tons, mainly at the expense of the United States.
At the same time, there will be a decrease in final stocks in Brazil and China.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food Forecasts a decrease in the harvest of grain and leguminous crops by 16.6%, or by 8.8 million tons, to 44.3 million tons in 2023 compared to 2022.
At the same time, the gross production of oil crops is expected to increase to 19.2 million tons against 18.2 million tons the previous year.
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