The International Monetary Fund forecasts a rise in unemployment in Ukraine next year.
Danylo Hetmantsev, a member of the Verkhovna Rada from the Servant of the People faction and the chairman of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy, has reported this on Telegram, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
"According to the IMF’s forecast, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in 2027 is expected to be 11.3% (compared to 11.6% in 2025 and 10.2% in 2026). As of the end of June 2026, there were 93,100 registered unemployed people in Ukraine, which is 2.2% fewer than a year ago and 1.3% fewer than in May. In total, 220,600 people were registered as unemployed during the first half of the year—2.8% fewer than during the same period last year," the lawmaker wrote.
The IMF assesses unemployment in the country as a whole using the methodology of the International Labor Organization, while current statistics cover only those who have officially registered as unemployed. Therefore, a decrease in the number of registered unemployed does not necessarily mean that the same number of people have found work: their status may be terminated, for example, due to enrollment in an educational program, the granting of a pension, or at the person’s own request.
The lawmaker noted that, at the same time, a significant imbalance persists in the labor market. As of the end of June, there were 63,200 job openings in the State Employment Service’s database—approximately 2 for every 3 registered unemployed individuals. However, employers continue to face a shortage of workers, particularly skilled ones. Job seekers’ skills do not always match the requirements of the vacancies.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Cabinet of Ministers forecasts that the number of people aged 15–70 engaged in economic activity will be 12.9 million (Scenario 1) / 12.8 million (Scenario 2) in 2027, in 2028—13.2 million people (Scenario 1)/13 million people (Scenario 2), in 2029—13.4 million people (Scenario 1) / 13.2 million people (Scenario 2).
The unemployment rate for the population aged 15–70 (according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization) is projected to be 12.7% (Scenario 1) / 12.4% (Scenario 2) in 2027, in 2028 – 12.9% (Scenario 1) / 12.6% (Scenario 2), in 2029—12.7% (Scenario 1) / 13% (Scenario 2).
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