The Cabinet of Ministers forecasts that GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2027 under a positive scenario and 1.3% under a negative scenario. This is stated in Resolution No. 695 of June 4 on the approval of the forecast for Ukraine’s economic and social development for 2027–2029, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
At the same time, GDP growth is projected to be 5.3% (scenario 1) / 4.1% (scenario 2) in 2028, and in 2029—6.7% (Scenario 1) / 5% (Scenario 2).
Inflation (December to December of the previous year) is projected at 8.9% (Scenario 1) / 8% (Scenario 2) in 2027, in 2028 – 6.9% (Scenario 1) / 8.2% (Scenario 2), in 2029 – 5.1% (Scenario 1) / 5.9% (Scenario 2).
The average monthly wage is projected to be UAH 35,010 in 2027 (Scenario 1) / UAH 34,409 (Scenario 2), in 2028 – UAH 39,362 (Scenario 1) / UAH 38,603 (Scenario 2), in 2029 – UAH 44,083 (Scenario 1) / UAH 43,185 (Scenario 2).
The number of people engaged in economic activity aged 15–70 is projected to be 12.9 million in 2027 (Scenario 1) / 12.8 million (Scenario 2), in 2028 – 13.2 million people (Scenario 1) / 13 million people (Scenario 2), in 2029 – 13.4 million people (Scenario 1) / 13.2 million people (Scenario 2).
The unemployment rate for the population aged 15–70 (according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization) is projected to be 12.7% (Scenario 1) / 12.4% (Scenario 2) in 2027, in 2028 – 12.9% (Scenario 1) / 12.6% (Scenario 2), in 2029 – 12.7% (Scenario 1) / 13% (Scenario 2).
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has developed a 15-year long-term economic development strategy for Ukraine titled “Economy of the Future,” which aims to increase GDP growth to 6% annually and bring back 3.1 million Ukrainians.
In April, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 0.9% following a decline in the first quarter, which helped mitigate the negative trend for the first four months of 2026 to -0.2%.
The 2026 state budget was drafted based on a macroeconomic forecast that projected GDP growth of 2.4%.
In 2025, GDP increased by 1.8% compared to 2024.
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