At the beginning of the year, inflation remained close to the National Bank's forecast, however, inflation expectations of the population have deteriorated.
This is stated in the NBU's message, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
After a long period of decline, overall inflation in February slightly accelerated to 7.6% in annual terms. At the same time, core inflation remained at 7.0% y/y. The growth in prices for fuel, services and raw products was somewhat faster than expected, while the cost of processed products, on the contrary, grew somewhat slower. As a result, overall inflation only slightly exceeded the trajectory of the NBU's forecast (Inflation Report, January 2026), and core inflation fully corresponded to it.
At the same time, household inflation expectations deteriorated significantly, probably against the background of the difficult situation in the energy sector at the beginning of the year, as well as the simultaneous increase in the price of a number of daily consumer goods, such as fuel and raw food. The expectations of other groups of respondents were relatively stable.
The further trajectory of inflation may be higher than forecast, in particular due to the increase in the price of energy resources against the background of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past few weeks, the situation in the energy sector of Ukraine has improved, which should limit price pressure. For its part, the NBU will maintain an appropriate level of monetary conditions to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments and ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market. This, among other things, should contribute to calming inflation expectations.
However, the war in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in the price of oil products and gas, which is already affecting domestic prices in Ukraine. As a result, the inflation trajectory in the coming months is likely to be somewhat higher than predicted by the NBU's January forecast. At the same time, there is uncertainty about the further development of the situation.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in February 2026, consumer prices increased by 1.0%.
In January-February 2026, inflation was 1.7%.
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