Russians start preparations for spring-summer offensive - ISW analysts name russia's priority target

Russia is preparing for a spring and summer offensive in the Donetsk Region. Currently, the occupiers are actively using artillery and drones to prepare the battlefield for further attacks.

In particular, in recent days, the invaders have fired at the outskirts of Kramatorsk with cannon artillery, which may be a harbinger of the beginning of ground assaults on the city in the near future.

This assumption was expressed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts believe that the russians have moved to artillery and unmanned aerial vehicle preparation of the battlefield for the spring-summer offensive in the fortress belt in the Donetsk Region.

In particular, on February 26 and 27, russian troops shelled Bilenke (about 14 kilometers from the front line and directly northeast of Kramatorsk, the northern edge of the Fortress Belt - a series of fortified cities that have been the backbone of Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk Region since 2014).

Occupants began preparations for spring-summer offensive: ISW named russia's priority target. Map

"Russian forces shelled Bilenke (roughly 14 kilometers from the frontline and immediately northeast of Kramatorsk, the northern tip of the Fortress Belt — a series of fortified cities that have constituted the backbone of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast since 2014) on February 26 and 27 — the first time that Russian forces have hit Kramatorsk or its suburbs with tube artillery. The artillery strikes against Bilenke likely mark the beginning of Russian artillery preparation ahead of the expected Spring-Summer 2026 Russian offensive," ISW said in the report.

Analysts predict that the occupiers will launch the ground assault phase of this offensive "in the near-term" - following the artillery preparation phase.

In addition, russian troops are also conducting a "battlefield air interdiction (BAI)" campaign on the southern edge of the Fortress Belt. By "battlefield air interdiction," analysts mean the intensive use of drones to hit targets in the front line (approximately 20 to 100 kilometers from the contact line) in order to influence tactical operations on the battlefield.

Geolocation footage released on February 26 showed russian drones striking a civilian cyclist on the H-20 Kostiantynivka-Sloviansk highway northwest of Kostiantynivka and Ukrainian troops in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka.

Occupants began preparations for spring-summer offensive: ISW named russia's priority target. Map

This highway is the main land line of communication connecting the cities of the Fortress Belt.

Russian forces have been using months-long "BAI" campaigns as part of a broader plan to weaken defenses and frontline positions ahead of russian ground offensives.

The analysts quoted a Ukrainian soldier fighting in the Sloviansk sector as saying that russian military commanders are deploying reinforcements in the Sloviansk sector. This, ISW says, is "another indicator that Russia plans to prioritize offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in the near-term."

"A Russian ground offensive to seize the Fortress Belt will likely be a multi-year operational effort that would cost the Russian military command significant time, manpower, and resources. Russian forces have so far been unable or unwilling to concentrate the resources required for a decisive offensive operation, particularly against the Fortress Belt," the article says.

As the Ukrainian News agency reported, at the end of January, an ISW ​​analytical review noted that it would take russia a year and a half to capture the entire Donbas at the current pace of advance.

To request a correction, please send an email.