Russia will need year and a half to capture entire Donbas at current pace of advance - ISW

At the current pace of advance, the aggressor country's army, russia, will need time until August 2027, to capture the territories of Donbas controlled by Ukraine. This is stated in an analytical review by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW recalled that the previous day, the Financial Times wrote, citing sources, that the United States had allegedly made it clear to Ukraine that in order to receive security guarantees, it would first need to withdraw its army from the territory of Donbas. ISW analysts believe that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops will put the russian army in a more advantageous position to resume attacks on the southwest and center of Ukraine after regrouping its forces.

Analysts write that the russian army will need a lot of time to capture the entire Donbas. If the pace of advance is maintained at the level of November 2025, this may not happen before August 2027.

It is noted that the pace of russian advance on the front decreased in late December 2025 and early January of this year. ISW analysts attribute this to worsening weather conditions.

As Ukrainian News Agency reported, on January 27, the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState reported that the occupying army had advanced near five settlements in the north of the Donetsk Region.

Also yesterday, the Ukrainian Defense Forces denied russian statements about the alleged capture of the settlement of Kupyansk-Vuzlove in the Kharkiv Region. The statement of the Chief of the General Staff of the prussian Armed Forces was also denied by russian propagandists and Z-channels.

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