The Ukrainian authorities are increasingly assuming that no future agreements to end the war are capable of providing the country with long-term security. In the face of uncertainty about real international obligations, they are focusing on their own defense capabilities. Politico writes about this.
As the publication notes, the European Union previously proposed turning Ukraine into a so-called "steel hedgehog" - a state that would not become easy prey for current or future aggressors. This involves the formation of a standing large army, the development of unmanned technologies, missile programs and the scaling of its own weapons production.
To implement such an approach, Ukraine needs deep reforms in the defense sector, updating the procurement system, changing approaches to staffing the army and significant financial resources.
Skepticism about the allies' guarantees, according to Politico, is primarily due to the lack of clear international security mechanisms similar to NATO's Article 5. Without membership in the Alliance, Ukraine is forced to rely on bilateral agreements that do not have the same force and binding force.
The unpredictability of Washington's position also raises some doubts. Analyst Timothy Ash, in a comment for Politico, notes:
"Will Trump start a war with russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not."
"Will Trump impose sanctions on russia for violating the ceasefire? Extremely unlikely."
During the negotiations, Ukraine insists on maintaining an army of up to 800,000 troops as a key factor in deterring russia. At the same time, even under conditions of a ceasefire, maintaining such an army will require enormous resources and systematic state support.
Particular emphasis is placed on the development of unmanned systems and high-precision weapons. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov noted:
"But it is impossible to fight with the help of new technologies, relying on the old organizational structure."
Legally binding agreements with the United States and European partners, as well as the potential presence of multinational forces, are viewed in Kyiv as an auxiliary element, rather than a full-fledged alternative to its own Armed Forces.
Head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, Aliona Hetmanchuk, emphasized that international security mechanisms can only complement national defense:
"However, they are largely viewed as a supplement to Ukraine's own army, not as a replacement for it... With such a neighbor, Ukrainians must be just as effective masters of their state's defense, so that Ukraine always remains independent and free from russia."
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, Ukraine considers a bilateral document on security guarantees with the United States ready.
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