The National Bank has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.8% in 2026.
This is stated in the materials of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
The economic growth forecast for next year has been maintained at 2.8%.
And in 2028, growth is forecast at 3.7%.
According to the NBU, the economy revived at the end of 2025 due to more active harvesting, including due to the shift of harvesting to the fourth quarter, as well as against the background of increased budget expenditures. At the same time, due to the disruption of logistics and a larger-than-expected electricity shortage in recent months, the NBU has slightly lowered its estimate of real GDP growth in 2025 to 1.8%.
An increase in harvests and investments in infrastructure and defense will ensure further economic recovery. However, the deteriorating situation in the energy sector will continue to limit business activity for a long time. In view of this, real GDP will grow moderately by 1.8% in 2026.
Gradual improvement in the energy sector, further infrastructure rebuilding, and increased private investment will help accelerate economic growth to around 3-4% in 2027-2028
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the National Bank has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.9% in 2025.
In 2025, real gross domestic product, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, increased by 2.2% compared to 2024.
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