The National Bank has downgraded its inflation forecast from 6.6% to 7.5% in 2026.
It is noted that inflation will be moderate in 2026, and will continue to be close to the 5% target with its achievement in mid-2028.
The decline in inflation will continue in the coming months, primarily due to the continued reflection of the effects of higher harvests in 2025. At the same time, the impact of the widespread disruption in the energy sector will weigh on prices through both market and administrative mechanisms. Together with the effects of a low comparison base, these will cause inflation to accelerate moderately in the second half of the year. Thus, by the end of 2026, inflation will decline moderately to 7.5%.
In the coming years, inflation will decelerate steadily due to a reduction in energy deficits, lower external price pressures, as well as increased harvests and an improvement in the labor market as security risks decline. The NBU's monetary policy will help limit underlying price pressures. However, the lagged effects of the disruptions in the energy sector will restrain disinflation. According to the NBU's forecast, inflation will decline to 6% at the end of 2027, and to the 5% target in 2028 in 2025, consumer prices increased by 8.0%.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in 2025, consumer prices increased by 8.0%.
In December, inflation was 0.2%
In January-December 2025, consumer prices increased by 12.7% compared to January-December 2024.
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