The National Bank reported that inflation in December was below the NBU's forecast due to the continued reflection of the effects of higher harvests.
This is stated in the report of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
Actual inflation in December 2025 was below the NBU's forecast published in the October 2025 Inflation Report, primarily due to the continued reflection of the effects of higher harvests. Core inflation was also lower than expected due to a sharper deceleration in the price of non-food goods and services amid easing labor market pressures and a stable FX market
Raw food prices rose by 7.4% in 2025.
In December, year-on-year growth in raw food prices slowed compared to November. The fall in prices for borscht vegetables deepened due to difficulties in storing sufficiently high yields. The rise in pork prices slowed as imports increased, while milk prices declined as raw milk prices fell amid the accumulation of excess stocks due to falling global prices. The cessation of dairy exports to the EU in December due to changes in licensing requirements for quota volumes also had a certain impact.
In 2025, core inflation slowed to 8.0%
The growth in prices for processed foods slowed to 12.1% yoy, in particular due to a slowdown in the growth of prices for butter, cheese, and dairy products.
The growth in prices for non-food products stopped in December (0.0% yoy), in particular due to the stable situation on the foreign exchange market. Prices for clothing and footwear continued to decline, while the growth in prices for other non-food products slowed further.
Services inflation decelerated to 12.3% yoy in December amid a gradual decline in labor market pressures. In particular, the growth rates of prices for insurance and financial services, cafes and fast food outlets, outpatient services, etc. decreased.
Administratively regulated prices increased by 9.7% during 2025.
The slowdown in administrative inflation in December was driven by a further decline in the rate of rise in prices for bread, pharmaceuticals, and alcoholic beverages, as well as a moderate decline in the rate of rise in prices for tobacco products.
Fuel inflation at the end of 2025 was 6.4%.
The acceleration of fuel price growth in December was driven by a further rise in gasoline and diesel prices due to logistical problems, deteriorating weather conditions, and increased demand amid power outages. An additional factor was the rise in the price of liquefied natural gas caused by significant delays in supplies at the beginning of the month.
In 2026, inflation is expected to slow further, in particular due to the gradual reduction of imbalances in the labor market, moderate external price pressure, and the NBU's monetary policy measures.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in December 2025, inflation continued to slow down to 8.0% year-on-year. Month-on-month, prices rose by 0.2%. This is evidenced by data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
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