In the third quarter of 2025, business maintained positive assessments of business activity over the next 12 months.
This is stated in the NBU report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Respondents continued to expect an increase in the production of goods and services in Ukraine, and were also positive about the development of their own enterprises amid a moderate strengthening of inflation and exchange rate expectations.
The business activity expectations index (BAEI), was 102.5% compared to 103.1% in the second quarter of 2025.
Businesses in 15 surveyed regions and the vast majority of types of activity expected a revival of business activity.
However, assessments of the future total number of employees remained restrained.
Military actions and their consequences remain the dominant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production volumes.
The impact of the shortage of qualified workers is still significant.
At the same time, the impact of the exchange rate factor has noticeably weakened.
Inflation expectations have strengthened somewhat: in the third quarter, the expected annual inflation in the next 12 months was 11.4% compared to 10.9% in the previous quarter.
The share of respondents who believed that inflation would exceed 15% increased to 22% from 15% in the previous survey.
For the fifth consecutive quarter, expectations for price growth in global markets have increased.
Respondents also expected the impact of the exchange rate factor to increase.
In contrast, expectations regarding the impact of the "tax changes" factor have weakened for the second consecutive quarter.
Respondents strengthened exchange rate expectations to 44.11 UAH/USD from 43.84 UAH/USD in the previous quarter.
60.2% of respondents expected an exchange rate of more than 43.50 UAH/USD, 38.6% of respondents expected an exchange rate of 40.51 - 43.50 UAH/USD.
The quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 28, 2025.
669 enterprises from 21 regions of the country (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson Regions) participated in the survey.
Among the surveyed enterprises, 20.5% were trading companies, 19.9% were processing industries, 14.2% were agriculture, 13.6% were transport and communications, 5.8% were mining industries, 5.4% were energy and water supply, 3.1% were construction, 17.5% were others; 33.2% of respondents are large enterprises, 36.2% are medium-sized, 30.6% are small.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The business activity expectations index is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months.
It is calculated based on the results of enterprise surveys as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales volumes of their own products, investment expenditures for construction work, machinery, equipment and inventory, and the number of employees.
An index value of more than 100 means a predominance of positive economic sentiment in society, while a value below 100 means a predominance of negative economic sentiment.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.