Business resumed positive assessments of the results of its own economic activity in September.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The improvement in sentiment was facilitated by stable consumer demand, a stable situation in the energy sector, budget financing for infrastructure restoration and road construction, a slowdown in inflation, and a stable situation in the foreign exchange market.
However, the increasing intensity of shelling, significant costs for restoration, tariff increases, and a shortage of qualified personnel remained restraining factors.
In September 2025, the BAEI increased to 50.4 from 49.0 in August 2025 and was higher than the level in September 2024 (48.7).
For the seventh consecutive month, trade enterprises positively assessed their current economic performance and were the most optimistic among respondents due to sufficient supply of goods, brisk demand and slowing inflation: the sectoral index in September increased to 54.0 from 51.8 in August 2025 (in September 2024 - 52.1).
Trade companies continued to expect an increase in the volume of trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, and also positively assessed stocks / balances of goods for sale. Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in trade margins.
Construction companies did not expect changes in their current activities, despite the financing of road construction, stable domestic demand, as well as favorable weather conditions: the sectoral index in September was 50 compared to 54 in August 2025 (in September 2024 - 50.1).
Builders expected a further increase in construction volumes, new orders and purchases of raw materials and supplies, albeit at a slower pace. Against the background of the expected increase in the cost of contractors' services, respondents were set to slow down the pace of increase in the volume of purchases of their services. The softening of assessments of the availability of contractors continued.
Industrial enterprises softened their cautious assessments of their performance, despite the further destruction of production capacities and overcoming their consequences, as well as the shortage of qualified workers: the sectoral index in September was 49.1 compared to 48.7 in August 2025 (in September 2024 - 50.3).
Industrialists continued to be set on increasing the volume of manufactured products, but did not expect changes in the volume of new orders for products. At the same time, cautious assessments of the volume of new export orders for products, the volume of work in progress, as well as the balance of finished products softened. For the first time in six months, an increase in the volume of raw materials and supplies was expected.
Service sector enterprises continued to soften their assessments of their economic prospects, despite the increase in business costs and complex and high-cost logistics: the sectoral index in September was 49.4 (in August 2025 - 47, in September 2024 - 44.6). Unlike the previous month, respondents expected an increase in the volume of services provided, new orders for services and services in the process of execution.
Against the background of the expected acceleration in the growth rate of purchase prices, industrial and construction enterprises expected an increase in the price of their own products, and trade enterprises - an increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale. In the service sector, a slowdown in the growth rate of supplier prices and the maintenance of high assessments of tariffs for their own services were expected.
The situation on the labor market is unstable. As in the previous month, only construction respondents expected an increase in the total number of employees, albeit at a lower rate. Trade enterprises were set for an unchanged total number of employees. However, staff reductions were still expected in industry and the service sector.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from September 3 to 22, 2025. 586 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43% were industrial companies, 26.1% were in the service sector, 25.1% were in trade, 5.8% were in construction; 29.5% of respondents were large enterprises, 28.5% were medium-sized, and 42% were small.
33.4% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.6% were only in export operations, 17.7% were only in import operations, and 39.2% were not engaged in foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly indices of business activity expectations are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) omics) and a composite one, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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