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ISW calls Kremlin's new tactics "divide and rule" and pressure on Ukraine's allies

The Kremlin has embarked on another information campaign to undermine support for Ukraine from the US and NATO, using traditional narratives and threats of nuclear weapons. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts recalled that in the fall of 2024, russia updated its nuclear doctrine, including a provision that an attack on it by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear one would be considered a joint aggression. ISW believes that these changes were intended to intimidate Ukraine's Western partners during key political discussions in the West.

The report also noted the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on July 16, who emphasized that "nuclear states must be responsible for inciting non-nuclear states to aggression." In addition, he stated that "Europeans retain an insanely militaristic attitude towards Moscow" and called on the international community to put pressure on Kyiv to force Ukraine to negotiate. ISW noted that such calls directly contradict the position of the West, which demands a meaningful dialogue from russia itself.

The analysts also recalled the statement of russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov on July 15, who said that the goal of the war was to eliminate "the threats that NATO has created on russia's borders."

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According to ISW, the Kremlin has not abandoned its rhetoric, but has shifted its emphasis: now it is not so much trying to prevent the provision of new assistance to Ukraine as it is seeking to reduce the assistance already provided and weaken ties between the United States and its allies.

"This approach is likely designed to create a false impression of russia's readiness for negotiations and at the same time undermine trust in Ukraine," the analysts noted.

According to experts, the Kremlin's current tactics are a response to the demonstration of renewed US determination to support Kyiv and NATO after the statements of President Donald Trump. ISW concluded that russia now prefers information campaigns that undermine the unity of the West in order to weaken Ukraine's defense capabilities and bring its capitulation closer.

Recall that Trump believes that russia will win: "It's only a matter of time."

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