The National Bank forecasts that net outflow of migrants will be about 0.2 million people in 2025.
This is stated in the NBU inflation report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Negative migration trends persist, as despite the start of negotiations on a potential ceasefire, their outcome is not determined, while shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population continue to increase.
The intentions of recipient countries to change or cancel the legal status of temporary protection of Ukrainian migrants after peace is achieved have not yet been finally determined.
Therefore, net external migration is expected to continue as long as high security risks persist.
The forecast assumptions remain unchanged: a further net outflow of external migrants in 2025 (about 0.2 million people) and the beginning of their return from 2026 (about 0.2 million people), which will accelerate in 2027 (about 0.5 million people).
The return of migrants will occur gradually, so the labor shortage will persist over the forecast horizon.
This will stimulate further wage increases at a rate higher than productivity growth, which will increase inflationary pressure.
This will also further restrain the economic recovery due to labor shortages.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the rapid recovery in the economy has ended, so without large-scale investments or a mass return of migrants, GDP growth in the coming years will be about 4% per year.
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