The rapid recovery in the economy has ended, so without large-scale investments or mass return of migrants in the coming years, GDP growth will be about 4% per year.
This is stated in the NBU Inflation Report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"The economy has completed the stage of rapid recovery after the initial shock of the full-scale invasion. Accordingly, real GDP has approached its potential level, so its growth rates over the forecast horizon will be moderate and will accelerate only in the event of the implementation of large-scale investment projects or the rapid return of migrants to the country," the report says.
Potential GDP will grow at a rate of about 4% per year and will be restrained by the lack of growth in the existing population against the background of a difficult migration situation and moderate rates of fixed capital accumulation.
The main risk to such a forecast is the nature and duration of the war, which will affect both investments and migration.
Currently, negative migration trends persist, as the intensity of shelling throughout Ukraine and terrorist attacks against civilians is increasing.
Therefore, net external migration is expected to continue.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the National Bank has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.1% in 2025.
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