In the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, almost four million Ukrainians currently enjoying temporary protection in the EU could lose their legal status. According to Euractiv, there is currently no concrete plan for their continued stay.
Following russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the EU activated the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), which came into effect for the first time since its adoption in 2001. It allowed Ukrainians to legally live, work and use social services in EU countries, including Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
However, due to the temporary nature of this directive and the political sensitivity of the migration issue, the future fate of millions of refugees remains uncertain. After the end of active hostilities, EU countries will be able to decide: to maintain protection, facilitate integration or call on Ukrainians to return home.
Surveys conducted among refugees indicate a change in sentiment: the share of those who intend to return to Ukraine has decreased from 77% to 65% in 2024. The number of undecided has increased from 18% to 24%, and those who do not plan to return at all has increased from 5% to 11%.
The European Commission is already considering further actions - in particular, whether or not to extend temporary protection, facilitate the transition of Ukrainians to national statuses, or support those who decide to return. However, the final decision depends on the agreement of all member states.
Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakušan noted: "But the specific conditions are yet to be negotiated." His counterpart Hana Malá emphasized that a common EU position is expected to be developed in the first half of this year.
Some countries have already started to act at the national level. Poland plans to grant three-year temporary resident status to those who have had protection for at least a year. In the Czech Republic, Ukrainians who have lived in the country for more than two years and have a job will be able to obtain a five-year residence permit. At the same time, Minister Rakušan warned that there would be no new temporary protection measures after the end of the war.
Other states — in particular, Austria, Italy, Estonia and Latvia — are developing their own long-term solutions. In Germany, options for action have already been prepared, but the final decisions will be made by the new government. Slovakia confirmed that the issue of the future of Ukrainian refugees is being actively discussed at the EU and individual country levels.
Recall that the European Union has calculated the number of Ukrainian refugees. Most of them are in Germany and Poland.
Meanwhile, 40% of Ukrainian refugees are considering returning to Ukraine after the end of the war.
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