Amid statements by senior American officials about upcoming negotiations on a peace treaty to end the war between Ukraine and russia, journalists have published three scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reports.
The Base Scenario:
The agency's analysts consider it the most likely. It consists in the fact that in the near future the territory occupied by russia remains "in limbo" and under its de facto control. Some exchanges of territories are possible, including part of the Kursk Oblast of the russian federation, controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
According to this scenario, Ukraine will receive some security guarantees, and most of the negotiations will focus on how strong they will be. Ukraine's accession to NATO is probably out of the question for now, so the fulfillment of obligations regarding these guarantees will ultimately depend on the decisions of future political leaders.
As Bloomberg notes, if Europe can establish a good line of communication with the White House, it will try to persuade Trump to keep Ukraine’s support while the EU can build its own capabilities.
The Ideal Scenario for Ukraine:
The ideal scenario for Kyiv is a bilateral commitment by the United States and the Europeans to intervene if russia violates the agreements. But the risk of direct conflict with russia makes even Ukraine’s most ardent supporters wary.
In return, Kyiv’s partners could commit to increasing military support for Ukraine and restoring or strengthening sanctions against russia. They could also help Ukraine develop its own defense industry and rebuild its military to serve as a major deterrent against russia.
If the EU can do all of this, it could pave the way for Ukraine to join the bloc, perhaps within the next decade, strengthening its eastern flank and demonstrating the bloc’s renewed ability to influence countries around it.
The Worst Scenario:
In a worst-case scenario for Kyiv, Trump could lose interest in Ukraine’s future before the countries reach any sort of settlement, cutting off military and financial aid and leaving the Europeans to sort out the problem.
Even if Trump’s engagement with putin does lead to a peace deal, it could only delay the next phase of what putin has called a war between NATO and russia.
A deal would preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow the country to begin rebuilding. But it could also cement putin’s significant gains, giving him control over a large part of Ukrainian territory and possibly blocking Kyiv from joining NATO.
The Baltic states, which putin sees as part of the russian empire he wants to restore, would be the most likely target.
According to Andres Kasekamp, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, putin does not even need to launch a full-scale attack to achieve his real goals. A hybrid operation to incite local unrest could give the kremlin a pretext for a limited invasion, ostensibly to protect russian-speaking communities (as it did in the east of Ukraine in 2014).
If Washington refused to join NATO forces to counter such an attack, putin would succeed in creating a split between the United States and its EU allies, which has been his long-standing goal.
As a reminder, speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump confirmed that Ukraine would get a seat at the negotiating table with russia on a possible ceasefire.
Earlier, on February 13, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Trump’s talks with russian dictator vladimir putin could not begin without a united position from Ukraine, the European Union, and the United States.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Euronews claims, citing sources, that Zelenskyy will meet with the U.S. Secretary of State and Vice President at the Munich Conference.
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