Former CEO of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine Serhii Makohon said that on February 7, gas reserves crossed the "psychological level" of 10% and amounted to 2.95 billion cubic meters of gas that can be lifted from underground storage facilities.
He announced this on his Facebook page, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"This is a historic low for reserves not only for this date, but also for all previous winters," Makohon noted.
He stated that leaving gas reserves in underground storage facilities at such a low level as now is "a very risky, senseless and expensive experiment by the Ministry of Energy and Naftogaz."
It is noted that at the end of the last heating season, as of March 30, 2024, there was more gas in the underground storage facilities than there is now, when there are still 2 cold months ahead.
"Will there be enough gas for the winter? There should be enough, but it all depends on the temperature regime in the next 2 months, the volume of gas production and consumption," Makohon wrote.
He reported that in previous months in warm weather, gas withdrawal averaged 60 million cubic meters per day, so mathematically the available gas should be enough until March 30.
"But: firstly, during frosts, consumption increases significantly and therefore it will be necessary to withdraw up to 80-90 million cubic meters from the underground storage facilities, which means that the remaining gas will last for a shorter period of time. And the next 2 weeks will be cold. Secondly, according to the project documentation, when the underground storage facilities are less than 10% full, the possibility of withdrawing gas (up to 60 million cubic meters and below) significantly decreases. But never in history have these indicators been checked, because the storage facilities have never been so empty. Therefore, unpleasant surprises are possible. I am not writing about the risks of damage to production by the enemy at all," Makohon said.
According to him, in order to reduce the risks, it is necessary to increase imports and/or reduce gas consumption.
The Naftogaz of Ukraine National Joint-Stock Company has already begun to urgently import gas.
"The Ministry of Energy has a plan to reduce consumption. These are definitely not hourly shutdown schedules, like in electricity. These are shutdowns of consumer groups. The population is disconnected last, so you should not worry. Industrial consumers are disconnected first. It is possible to transfer CHPPs/TPPs to fuel oil and coal, etc.," Makohon noted.
According to his estimates, Naftogaz will spend billions of hryvnias on the procument of gas, which it currently buys at 2 times the price it could buy in the summer.
Makohon called such actions ineffective and caused by ill-considered actions of the management.
The former head of the GTS Operator believes that it is worth starting gas imports from May 2025.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Naftogaz Group, which assured that it would pass the winter without imports, urgently purchased about 150 million cubic meters of gas in the European Union for February.
Ukraine maintained gas imports at a high level of 16.3 million cubic meters on Sunday, February 9, continuing procurement on the EU market.
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