The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that fuel prices will rise by over 13% in 2025.
This is stated in the NBU inflation report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"As reserves are depleted under the influence of the approved increase in excise duties, the growth rate of fuel prices will accelerate to over 13% this year. Due to the impact on the cost price, this will put additional pressure on the cost of individual goods and transport services. In the medium term, the decline in world oil prices will partially offset the further increase in the excise burden. As a result, the growth in fuel prices will slow down significantly," it says.
It is also reported that in addition to the cost of raw materials and exchange rate dynamics, fuel prices at the end of last year were also affected by changes in tax legislation and marketing methods of fighting for the client.
In particular, in early December, the rule on advance payment of profit tax by gas station networks came into effect.
The entry into force on December 24 of the law on minimum stocks of oil and petroleum products, which was adopted at the end of 2023 and provides for the creation of stocks of oil and petroleum products in the amount of 90 days of average daily net imports or 61 days of average daily domestic consumption, will likely lead to a review of margins and trade margins by importers and gas station networks.
In order to revive demand, gas station networks also intensified marketing campaigns, including weekend discounts, as well as before "Black Friday".
At the end of the year, fuel imports also intensified in order to accumulate sufficient stocks before the next stage of excise duty increases from the beginning of 2025, which will somewhat restrain the growth of fuel prices in the coming months, but this effect will be short-term.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in January, the excise tax on fuel increased, which will affect prices at gas stations.
Earlier, experts predicted that prices at gas stations could increase by UAH 1.5-2 by the end of January.
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