Business in November weakened business activity estimates.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for a forced break in March-May 2022, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
It is noted that the increased intensity of hostilities, renewed power outages due to russian attacks on the power system, further growth in energy costs, labor costs and logistics, accelerating inflation, a significant shortage of qualified personnel, as well as seasonality restrained economic activity and influenced the weakening of business expectations.
In November 2024, the BAEI was 47.2 compared to 49.4 in October.
Trade enterprises were the only ones to positively assess their business activity due to stable domestic demand and sufficient supply of goods: the sectoral index in November was 51.4 (in October – 51.9).
Trade companies predicted an increase in trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, and were also positive about the balance of goods for sale.
Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in trade margins.
Industrial enterprises weakened their assessments of the economic prospects for November, given the worsening security situation, power supply disruptions and rising production costs: the sectoral index in November was 46.7 (in October – 49.8).
Unlike the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of manufactured goods and new orders for products, and also weakened their assessments of the volume of both new export orders for products and work in progress.
Instead, estimates of finished goods inventories improved somewhat, and raw material inventories were also expected to increase.
Service sector enterprises also weakened their assessments of their performance against the backdrop of rising logistics costs, electricity shortages, and a shortage of skilled personnel: the sector index was 44.8 in November (47.2 in October).
Respondents weakened their assessments of the volume of services provided and new orders for services.
Expectations for the volume of services in progress remained weak.
Construction enterprises provided the most pessimistic assessments of their current economic results, given the seasonal slowdown in road and infrastructure construction, as well as a shortage of skilled workers: the sector index in November was 43.6 compared to 49.6 in October.
Builders expected a decrease in construction volumes, new orders, and procurement of raw materials and materials.
Survey participants significantly weakened, but maintained positive, expectations regarding the volume of procurement of contractor services against the background of increasing negative assessments of their availability and slowing down the rate of increase in their cost.
Against the background of slowing down the growth rates of procurement prices, enterprises in industry, construction and services expected lower growth rates of prices / tariffs for their own products / services, only respondents in trade expected them to increase slightly.
The situation on the labor market remains difficult.
Respondents from all surveyed sectors expected a reduction in the number of personnel, most significantly in the service sector.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from November 4 to 21, 2024.
504 enterprises participated in the survey.
Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.2% were industrial companies, 27.6% were service companies, 23.4% were trade companies, and 4.8% were construction companies.
29.6% of respondents are large enterprises, 28.8% are medium-sized, 41.7% are small.
31.7% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 10.1% carry out only export operations, 18.3% carry out only import operations, 39.9% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
The survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank.
The monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BIEA) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends.
The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
The index value at 50 is neutral.
Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in October, business continued to soften its assessments of business activity.
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