In October, business continued to soften estimates of business activity.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) calculates every month, with the exception of the forced break in March - May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Optimistic forecasts regarding international financing, the revival of consumer demand, a stable situation in the energy sector, a sufficient supply of goods and favorable weather conditions had a positive effect on business expectations.
At the same time, the increasing shelling of port infrastructure, the risk of further attacks on energy facilities, the growth of business costs for energy, labor and logistics, the increase in fuel prices due to the increase in excise duty rates, the shortage of qualified personnel, and the acceleration of inflation rates remained restraining factors.
In October 2024, the BAEI closely approached the neutral level and was 49.4 compared to 48.7 in September.
Trade enterprises slightly decreased, but kept the most optimistic estimates of the level of their business activity thanks to the revival of consumer demand, sufficient supply of goods and the improvement of logistics: the sectoral index in October was 51.9 (in September - 52.1).
Trading companies predicted an increase in turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, but instead worsened estimates regarding stocks / balances of goods for sale.
Trade enterprises, as before, were determined to reduce the trade margin.
Industrial companies cautiously evaluated the current results of their activities, taking into account the difficult security situation and the growth of energy, labor and logistics costs: the sectoral index in October was 49.8 (in September - 50.3).
Respondents continued to expect an increase in the volume of manufactured products and new orders for products, and also softened estimates for the volume of work in progress and the balance of finished products.
On the other hand, expectations regarding the volumes of new export orders for products have weakened somewhat.
Construction companies downgraded estimates of their near-term economic performance amid a seasonal slowdown in road and infrastructure construction, with the sector index at 49.6 in October compared to 50.1 in September.
Builders expected a further increase in the volume of construction, but somewhat weakened their expectations regarding the growth of the volume of new orders and the volume of purchases of raw materials.
Survey participants more confidently predicted an increase in the volume of procurement of contractor services against the background of a decrease in estimates regarding the increase in their expected cost. The softening of negative assessments regarding the availability of contractors continued.
Enterprises in the service sector increased, but left the most restrained estimates of their current development due to increased shelling of port infrastructure, increased costs and a shortage of qualified personnel: the sectoral index was 47.2 in October (44.6 in September).
For the first time in six months, the respondents expected a slight increase in the volume of new orders for services and at the same time less restrainedly assessed the volume of services provided and services in progress.
Against the background of persistent expectations regarding high growth rates of purchase prices, enterprises of all sectors participating in the survey predicted an increase in prices / tariffs for their own products / services.
The situation on the labor market remains difficult. Respondents from all surveyed sectors expected a reduction in the number of personnel.
If industrial and construction enterprises predicted an acceleration of the rate of reduction, then trade and service sectors - on the contrary, their slowdown.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from October 3 to 23, 2024. 489 enterprises took part in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.0% are industrial companies, 27.4% are service sector companies, 23.1% are trade companies, and 5.5% are construction companies; 30.9% of respondents are large enterprises, 27.8% are medium-sized enterprises, and 41.3% are small enterprises.
32.3% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.2% - only export operations, 19.4% - only import operations, 39.1% - do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly index of expectations of business activity (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly indexes of expectations of business activity are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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