Ukraine's Western partners could weaken russia's desire to wage a protracted war against Ukraine and undermine vladimir putin's confidence in the ability to succeed by force.
This was stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin's current victory strategy is said to be based on russia's ability to sustain promised Western military aid to Ukraine and mobilize a significant portion of its economy and population to participate in the war.
The report says that putin and the russian military command increasingly see a strategic need to maintain the initiative across the entire theater of operations. The Institute's analysts are convinced that the Kremlin will try to prevent Ukraine from concentrating enough personnel and resources to conduct successful defense operations, which could ultimately lead to Ukraine's defeat in the war.
ISW notes that putin's victory strategy is based on the assumption that Ukraine will not be able to liberate significant territories. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can quickly neutralize russian gains and seize the initiative on the battlefield or in the entire theater of operations, russia's slow progress will lose its meaning.
Thus, Western military aid and efforts to build up the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which would allow it to seize the initiative, are crucial to changing putin's calculations. Without further significant russian defeats, it is unlikely that the dictator will change his assessment of the possibility of destroying Ukraine.
"Western security assistance, which will provide the Ukrainian forces with the necessary equipment and weapons in the volume, on time and on a regular basis, and which the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to conduct operations to liberate large areas of occupied Ukraine, remains the only possible way to weaken putin's intentions to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity, despite on time and cost," the ISW report says.
As previously reported, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that the plan to end the war will be ready already in 2024.
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