The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a decrease in the wheat harvest in Ukraine by 7.1%, or 1.5 million tons, to 19.5 million tons, and an increase in the corn harvest - by 2.6%, or 0.7 million tons, to 27.7 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year (July 2024 - June 2025).
This is stated in the message of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB) association, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
At the same time, it is predicted that the export of wheat will decrease by 1 million tons to 13 million tons and the export of corn will increase by 0.5 million tons to 24.5 million tons.
According to updated forecasts, world wheat production in 2024/25 will decrease by 7.5 million tons to 790.8 million tons.
Such changes will occur at the expense of russia (a reduction of 5 million tons to 83.0 million tons), Ukraine and the EU (a reduction of 1.5 million tons to 130.5 million tons), which is only partially compensated by an increase in global initial stocks. The main reasons for the reduction are weather conditions.
World wheat consumption was decreased by 4.3 million tons to 798 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in feed and residual use in the EU, russia and Ukraine.
The forecast of world trade in wheat also decreased by 3.2 million tons to 212.8 million tons.
Projected global final stocks of wheat for 2024/25 decreased by 1.3 million tons to 252.3 million tons, primarily due to the reduction of stocks in the EU.
Updated corn production forecast for 2024/25 increased by 0.6 million tons to 1,220.5 million tons due to increased production in Ukraine and Zambia, partially offset by a reduction in russia (by 0.6 million tons to 15.4 million tons).
Forecast of global corn trade volumes in 2024/25 foresees an increase in export volumes by 0.7 million tons to 191.8 million tons.
At the same time, the forecast of the world's final reserves of corn is estimated at 310.8 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons lower than the previous forecast.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasts a 10% decrease in the yield of grain and leguminous crops, or 8 million tons, to 74 million tons in 2024 compared to 2023.
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