The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered the current forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds this year by 2%, or 1.5 million tons, to 74.6 million tons compared to the previous forecast.
This is stated in the message of UGA, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"In 2023, according to the UGA, the harvest amounted to 82.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds. The current forecast is based on average weather conditions over the past 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may make adjustments. A potential decrease in the harvest in the new season is caused both by the reduction of sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics), and by a somewhat dry period in May of this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country," the message reads.
Under such conditions, according to the report, exports in the new season of 2024/2025 will amount to 43.5 million tons.
In the current season, which is coming to an end, according to the UGA, the export of grain and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grain and oilseeds.
The UGA predicts the wheat harvest in 2024 at the level of 19.1 million tons, which is 900,000 tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023).
The potential export of wheat in the 2024/2025 marketing year (July 2024 - June 2025) may amount to about 13 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, transitional balances will amount to about 2.4 million tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may amount to 4.6 million tons (in 2023 – 5.8 million tons), and the potential export in 2024/2025 m.y. is expected at the level of about 2 million tons (in the current season, barley exports are forecast at the level of 2.5 million tons).
"Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the potential reduction of the acreage under corn and the dry period in a number of regions. Therefore, the UGA estimates the forecast for the corn harvest at the level of 25.5 million tons, which is 800,000 tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year - 29.6 million tons. At the same time, the potential export can amount to about 20.5 million tons (in the current season, exports are expected at the level of 26 million tons)," the report says.
Sunflower harvest in 2024 the UGA expects at the level of 13.7 million tons (in 2023 - 14.2 million tons), and potential export - at the level of 250,000 tons (in the current season, the expectation is 0.4 million tons), while sunflower oil processing can reach almost 13.6 million tons (this season processing will reach 13.5 million tons).
"In 2024, the rapeseed harvest can be expected at the level of 4.3 million tons (in 2023 - 4.5 million tons), while exports in 2024/2025 may amount to - 3.4 million tons (in the current season - 3.7 million tons). As for soybeans, it is almost the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. Soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at the level of 5.5 million tons (4.9 million tons in 2023). Potential export in 2024/2025 can reach 4 million tons (in the current season it is expected at the level of 3.3 million tons)," the message says.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in April the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said that it predicts a decrease in the harvest of grain and leguminous crops by 10%, or by 8 million tons, to 74 million tons in 2024 compared to 2023.
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