Many political scientists, debating the prospects for resolving the most massive military conflict of the 21st century, agree on one thing: victory was simply stolen from Ukraine. According to open sources, companies from "third" countries received the greatest benefit from cooperation with the aggressor state - Russia. For example, India. Among them is India's largest conglomerate Reliance Industries.
Its owner Mukesh Ambani, whose fortune is estimated at $95 billion, is rightfully called by the media one of the main sponsors of the invaders' army and the primary beneficiaries of the war. After all, he is the architect and ideologist of the so-called "Ambani scheme," through which Russian oil, after processing, is sold around the world under the guise of "Indian" oil.
Billions of dollars received from these deals continue to go toward equipping the Russian army with missiles, shells, drones... Things that are right now destroying Ukrainian cities and killing civilians in this country.
The Collapse of Putin's Blitzkrieg
…By the end of August 2022, it became clear that the war in Ukraine was not following the scenario Moscow had anticipated. Plans for a quick victory, modeled on the five-day war in Georgia, had failed. Putin's blitzkrieg did not materialize. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU), which, according to Kremlin plans, were expected to surrender within three days, defied all predictions. After withstanding the initial blow of Russia's military machine, they transitioned from defense to a series of counterattacks that nearly shattered the Kremlin's vaunted military might.
Two main factors contributed to this. The AFU proved far better prepared than the Kremlin had expected, and the supply of modern Western weapons significantly enhanced their capabilities. Additionally, Russian leadership clearly underestimated the Ukrainian people's determination to defend their homeland.
The cost of these miscalculations was enormous, surprising even skeptical Western analysts. By the end of 2023, Russian troop losses amounted to nearly 146,000 killed and wounded, according to data from the General Staff of the AFU. U.S. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed these estimates, stating that Russian losses exceeded "100,000 soldiers."
Systemic Crisis of the Russian Army
Alongside massive personnel losses, Russian forces suffered catastrophic damage to their military equipment. According to Forbes, over just two months, more than 500 main battle tanks were destroyed. American experts estimated that in the first year of the conflict, Russia lost about a quarter of its initial combat power.
The shortage of modern equipment forced Russian command to take desperate measures. T-62 tanks from the 1960s were sent to the front, and some reports even mentioned the use of T-55 tanks from 1958.
The mobilization announced in September 2022 further exposed deep systemic problems in Russia's military machine. As reported by The Guardian, the Russian army struggled to provide mobilized soldiers with even basic equipment, from rifles to underwear.
A severe blow to the prestige of Russian forces was the rapid depletion of their high-precision weapons, once a source of Kremlin pride. The Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies called Defense Minister Shoigu's claims of a "30-fold increase" in cruise missile production a bluff. Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, stated that by autumn 2022, Russia had used about 60% of its high-precision weapons stockpile, and up to 70% for certain types. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov reported that by October 2022, Russia had depleted nearly 70% of its pre-war stockpile of Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles.
Collapse of the Kremlin Economy
Things were no better in Russia's rear. Western politicians were correct when they said Russia's economy was "torn to shreds." Sanctions paralyzed key enterprises of Russia's military-industrial complex. Due to a lack of components and financial issues, even the "legendary" Uralvagonzavod, Russia's main tank manufacturer, halted operations.
The absence of Western components complicated not only tank production. Sanctions deprived Russia of access to many critical components for weapons systems. For instance, without microchips—whose production Russia has failed to establish—it is nearly impossible to manufacture modern aircraft, missiles, drones, and electronic warfare systems.
Sanctions on Russia's energy sector were particularly painful. Starting in spring 2022, the U.S. and Canada completely stopped purchasing Russian oil. In February 2023, the EU imposed a full embargo on Russian petroleum products, stripping Russia of 42% of its gasoline, diesel, and other refined product exports.
In March 2022, major Russian banks were disconnected from the SWIFT system, and $300 billion of Russia's Central Bank foreign reserves were frozen. The so-called "fourth-largest economy in the world" was effectively isolated from the civilized world.
The effectiveness of Western sanctions was evident. According to the Jamestown Foundation, Russia faced severe challenges, including dwindling economic reserves, labor shortages, heavy military losses, and mass emigration. By the winter of 2022–2023, Russia's economy was on the brink of collapse.
In December 2022, the EU and U.S. introduced a price cap on Russian oil, aimed at halving Russia's oil export revenues. Initially, this measure showed results.
According to Bloomberg, Russia's budget deficit in January 2023 alone reached 1.76 trillion rubles. Tax revenues from oil and gas fell by 46%, while federal spending due to the war surged by 59%. Meanwhile, Ukraine was preparing a counteroffensive that, following its successes in 2022, threatened to break the aggressor's back and fundamentally alter the course of the war.
Ambani - Architect of the Sanctions Evasion Scheme
It was precisely at this critical moment that a sophisticated sanctions evasion scheme began operating. Its center became the Indian corporation Reliance Industries, and its "architect" - billionaire Mukesh Ambani. About 40 little-known shadow trading companies that "appeared literally out of nowhere" controlled more than half of Russia's oil exports by 2023. Other Indian market players also used the scheme. Ambani's connections and influence helped ensure its uninterrupted operation.
It worked elegantly: companies bought Russian crude at a large discount of $30-40 per barrel to circumvent the price ceiling set by Western countries. Then through companies registered in Persian Gulf countries and Hong Kong, oil was resold to India with a discount of only $5-8. As a result, the difference of $3-4 billion per month settled in the accounts of traders close to Putin's regime. This money was already outside Russia, bypassing sanctions barriers, and could be used to purchase scarce chips, equipment for military factories, and weapons components. The "Indian scheme" supplied the Kremlin with much-needed "petrodollars" at a critical moment of the war.
The scheme was insanely profitable for Ambani. Buying Russian oil at a discount, his company sold the petroleum products resulting from its processing to the European market, where fuel prices had sharply soared at that moment. Profit from this operation could amount to more than $4 billion per year.
It's no surprise that if in April 2022 the Reliance Industries plant of enterprising Mr. Ambani bought only 5% of consumed oil from Russia, by May of the same year the share grew to 27%, and by early 2023 exceeded 45%. Since then, the scale of Reliance Industries' cooperation with the Kremlin has only grown. In fact, the conglomerate owner "launders" "petrodollars" for the Kremlin, providing it the opportunity to continue financing the army through oil supplies. Other Indian players began working according to a similar scheme.
Money from Mukesh Ambani and other local players also goes to support "local" producers. According to recent data alone, several Russian companies acquired military equipment and gear from India worth $4 billion. New Delhi also supplied combat vehicle components worth $1.4 billion. Pharmaceutical products worth $518 million provided the Russian army with necessary medications. And chemical products worth almost half a billion dollars helped Russia's military-industrial complex in producing explosives and rocket fuel.
Today Ukraine faces a fundamentally different opponent than the one that suffered defeats near Kyiv, in Kherson region and Kharkiv region... The Russian army, having gained access to modern drones, missiles, and enormous quantities of artillery shells, has become a much more serious threat. And the main role in this transformation was played not by military reforms, but by oil billions that passed through the Indian hands of Mukesh Ambani, bypassing Western sanctions.
As The New York Times correctly noted, "all roads lead to Reliance." After all, despite harsh pressure and sanctions from the US and EU, Reliance even in 2025 shows record indicators. Revenue grew to $71.7 billion from $57.2 billion in 2021. The Russian oil factor was naturally decisive. Its share in Reliance's processing exceeded 30%. US President Donald Trump doesn't hide that such support for Russia from India extremely negatively affects peace negotiations.
Putin, knowing that billions of petrodollars will in any case replenish the "Kremlin" treasury, gained the opportunity to take an uncompromising position and rave about annexing four Ukrainian regions and Crimea. Trump, including in forcing the Kremlin toward peace, imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. But apparently, the income from Mukesh Ambani's cooperation with the Kremlin for New Delhi outweighs even these losses. It seems that Trump, predicting the end of hostilities in Ukraine, was wrong once again. Another party has appeared in the war. And peace is definitely not in its interests.
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