The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made a long-term forecast of the dollar exchange rate. In particular, experts predict a slight devaluation in 2024. And then the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia will increase, but gradually.
This is reported in the World Economic Outlook (April 2024).
According to IMF calculations, the average annual UAH/USD exchange rate will be:
- 2024 – 41.0 UAH/USD
- 2025 – 45.8 UAH/USD
- 2026 – 48.6 UAH/USD
- 2027 – 50.4 UAH/USD
- 2028 – 52.1 UAH/USD
- 2029 – 54.1 UAH/USD.
The IMF also updated the growth forecast for Ukraine's economy. Ukraine's GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024. Growth will accelerate to 6.5% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026. The IMF forecasts inflation in Ukraine at the level of 8.5% by the end of 2024, 7.0% in 2025, and 5.5% in 2026.
According to the IMF, the global economy will continue to grow at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023. The five-year global growth forecast of 3.1% is at its lowest level in a decade. Global inflation is projected to decline steadily, from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.
As earlier reported, on August 6, 2022, the National Bank canceled the restriction, according to which banks and non-banking institutions had to buy cash currency from the population at a rate not lower than the official one.
The National Bank allowed banks to sell more currency to the public.
The National Bank has been implementing managed exchange rate flexibility since October 3.
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