Russian troops trying to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines and preparing for new offensive - ISW

The russians will continue offensive actions to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines, while preparing for a new offensive in the summer of 2024.

This is stated in another report from researchers of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from Washington.

At the same time, ISW analysts suggest that russian forces will likely continue offensive actions to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines in the spring of 2024, while simultaneously preparing for a projected new offensive operation in the summer of this year.

In their view, the provision of Western security assistance is likely to play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and repel new russian offensive efforts in the coming months.

At the same time, russian troops are trying to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilizing their defensive lines.

The occupiers are particularly focused on advancing as far west of Avdiyivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a line in the area that will be harder to breach.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on March 15 that russian forces have concentrated their efforts in the Avdiyivka axis and are conducting daily mechanized and infantry attacks in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Although Ukrainian forces have recently succeeded in slowing the advance of russian troops west of Avdiyivka, widespread logistical shortages caused by the delay in Western security assistance are forcing Ukraine to direct limited resources to critical areas of the front, which increases the risk of russian forces breaking through in other less well-secured areas and makes the front line as a whole more vulnerable than it seems, despite the current relatively slow pace of russian troop advance.

Experts say russian forces will continue to use the advantages of theater-of-war-wide initiative to dynamically redeploy their offensive efforts this spring and summer, likely in hopes of exploiting potential Ukrainian vulnerabilities.

Ukrainian and Western officials are increasingly warning both about a significant shortage of Ukrainian material resources and about a new large-scale russian offensive this summer.

Therefore, experts emphasize that the russians intend to take advantage of any gains it makes in the coming weeks, as well as predictions that the Ukrainian armed forces may be even worse equipped this summer than they are now.

However, under the conditions of receiving Western aid, Ukraine will be able to stabilize the front line more and prepare to repel russian offensive actions.

In addition, the report notes, the acute shortage of air defense systems and missiles is likely to drastically reduce Ukraine's ability to defend itself against russian strikes both in the rear and on the front lines in the coming weeks, if the problem is not resolved quickly.

Meanwhile, russian troops have recently been making efforts to tighten Ukrainian air defenses both in rear population centers and along the front line.

"A 60 percent reduction in Ukraine's ability to target russian missiles will further exacerbate these resource allocation problems. According to ISW, the United States remains the only immediate source of the necessary air defense systems, such as the Patriot," the review said.

ISW Key Findings for March 15:

- Russian forces are likely to continue offensive actions to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines in the spring of 2024, while preparing for a projected new offensive operation in the summer of 2024. The provision of Western security assistance is likely to play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and repel new russian offensive efforts in the coming months.
- Well-equipped Ukrainian forces have demonstrated that they can prevent russian forces from achieving even modest gains during large-scale russian offensive operations, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine will be able to further stabilize the front line and prepare to repel russian offensive operations this summer if the shortage of material and technical means will decrease.
- The threat of significant russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat that russian forces will be able to achieve such gains through offensive operations this spring.
- The acute shortage of air defense systems and missiles is likely to drastically reduce Ukraine's ability to defend against russian strikes both in the rear and on the front lines in the coming weeks, unless this problem is resolved quickly.
- Russian forces have demonstrated an ability to adapt to combat operations in Ukraine and will likely seek to apply lessons learned during the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare russian armed forces for a potential long-term term confrontation with NATO.
- High-ranking European officials emphasized that russia's victory in Ukraine would result in russia creating a strategic threat to NATO's security.
- Deputy Chairman of russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, questioned the sovereignty of NATO member Latvia and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs after Medvedev called for the total destruction of Ukraine and the absorption of Ukraine by russia under his "peace formula" on March 14.
- French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 15 that he does not rule out the introduction of Western troops into Ukraine, but the current situation does not require it.
- russian president vladimir putin rejected the continuation of raids from the territory of Ukraine to the border regions of russia on March 15.
- Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on a russian oil refinery in the Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have reportedly caused a spike in oil prices in russia's domestic market.
- Several russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in russia's presidential election on March 15.
- Recently, russian troops have made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiyivka, as well as in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Region.
- Representative of the Ukrainian Coordination Staff for the treatment of prisoners of war, Petro Yatsenko, said that russia has stepped up its efforts to recruit military personnel from abroad.
- Ukrainian sources and russian mass media reported that the occupation authorities continue coercive measures to artificially inflate voter turnout and the level of support for russian president vladimir putin in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

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