The aggressor country of russia will try to use the current weakness of Ukraine in its interests, but quick offensive maneuvers and strikes are unlikely, because russia does not have such huge resources.
This opinion is held by the commander of Zemessardze (National Guard of Latvia), Brigadier General Kaspars Pudans, Delfi writes.
According to him, the aggressor may see an opportunity to regain the initiative at both the tactical and strategic levels, assessing how long Ukraine as a state will be able to hold out and how long the support of the allies will last. Russia perfectly understands that Ukraine's ability to resist depends on the support of the West with weapons.
Pudans recalled that it took several years for russia to capture Avdiyivka. According to the General, russia will try to move forward in small steps and perhaps seize some territory, but the main thing for it is not to lose and not to retreat.
According to Pudans, Ukraine is now capable of conducting only defensive actions, in particular due to problems with fatigue and personnel renewal. Three components are needed to advance the Ukrainian army - wider mobilization, greater support from Western countries and new tactical operational solutions.
"The new command must look for new ideas, that is, tactical operational solutions, how not to lose the war and, preferably, win it. The only way to win this war is to physically destroy the enemy's forces, if not in all, then in most of the territory. Considering on Ukraine's resources, it is unlikely that it will win the final victory this year," Pudans believes.
He suggests that the Ukrainians may try to regain a strategic advantage not on the front line, but in the rear, on russian territory, and cause damage in the occupied territories. The Ukrainians are interested not in striking symbolic objects, but in inflicting operational losses on russia, and this is one of the trump cards that can be used.
According to the former commander of the National Armed Forces, Raimonds Graube, the year 2024 will be decisive and will determine the future direction and outcome of the war. He also believes that the war will not end this year, but the situation by the end of 2024 will set the stage for further actions.
Graube expressed hope for Ukraine's victory, but there may be even greater uncertainty. At the same time, it is necessary to look at the fatigue and attitude of Western society, because this will determine the agenda of the politicians of Western countries.
According to Graube, the russian military industry is developing, and mobilization, despite all internal problems, provides "cannon fodder". The West can change the unfavorable situation for Ukraine, and it is not only about technology, but also about the speed of supplying weapons and their types. Graube believes that Ukraine's ability to develop serious operational-level attacks this year is minimal.
It will be recalled that US officials believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face a "catastrophic" shortage of ammunition by the end of March.
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