Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the lack of ammunition may force Ukrainian troops to make difficult decisions regarding the priority of certain areas of the front: to choose where territorial defeats are the least destructive.
This is stated in the next issue of an analytical note from experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from Washington.
ISW continues to assess that shortages of artillery ammunition and delays in Western security assistance are creating uncertainty in Ukraine's operational plans.
Open-source investigations indicate that russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine's ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counter-battery fight.
Thus, the Ukrainian analyst group Frontelligence Insight stated that russian forces previously created stationary artillery firing positions from late 2022 to early 2023, when a shortage of ammunition limited Ukrainian counter-battery capabilities.
Frontelligence said russian forces began concentrating their artillery in a similar manner in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are once again experiencing shortages of artillery ammunition.
The Central Intelligence Agency reported that Ukrainian forces may occasionally engage russian artillery, but generally lack the ammunition to conduct effective counter-battery fire.
According to front-line intelligence, the lack of counter-battery fire by Ukrainian troops allows russian artillery to largely destroy populated areas, which makes it virtually impossible to defend populated areas by Ukrainian forces.
The Central Intelligence Agency said that many Ukrainian drones do not have the range to engage the numerous russian artillery installations located 15 to 24 kilometers from the front line.
Western and Ukrainian officials have recently emphasized Ukraine's need for artillery ammunition.
ISW key takeaways for February 2:
- russian president vladimir putin, during a speech on February 2, called for a broad social and economic mobilization of russia, reminiscent of the full mobilization of the Soviet Union during World War II, despite the fact that russia is conducting a much more gradual, but nevertheless effective mobilization of its defense - industrial base.
- on February 2, russian defense minister sergei shoigu said that russian forces were maintaining a "strategic initiative" along the entire front line in Ukraine, a marked departure from shoigu's earlier characterization of russian operations as "active defense."
- open source investigations show that russian forces benefit from a shortage of ammunition and Ukraine's inability to conduct sufficient counter-battery warfare.
- US Department of State spokesman Matthew Miller repeated on February 1 that russian president vladimir putin has repeatedly stated that he has not changed his goals regarding the capture and subjugation of Ukraine.
- russian military bloggers and ultra-nationalist figures continue to present themselves as impartial and constructive critics of the russian army in contrast to official Kremlin sources in the russian information space.
- the Kremlin launched an information campaign, during which famous influential people in social networks advertise the russian Orthodox Church.
- russian troops recently confirmed an offensive near Avdiyivka and near the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions amid positional battles along the entire line of contact on February 2.
- on February 2, the russian publication Izvestia, citing sources in the russian military, stated that the russian ministry of defense is forming air defense units within the airborne assault units to protect russian infantry from Ukrainian drones, frontal air strikes and shelling.
- Ukrainian and Canadian officials announced a new coalition to return Ukrainian children from russia to Ukraine.
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