After analyzing the collected data and statements of russian public persons, the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes that it continues to assess: "Any ceasefire would benefit Russia."
This is stated in the regular daily report of the ISW.
The institute's report notes that russian demands for Ukrainian "neutrality" and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and remain one of the main justifications for putin's invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession to these demands would mean a serious strategic and rhetorical retreat on the part of putin, which he is unlikely to decide on at present.
Russian calls for Ukrainian "neutrality" are demands that Ukraine amend its Constitution to remove commitments to NATO membership and take commitments not to join NATO or the European Union (EU).
According to the collected data, analysts note that the requirements for such a "neutral status" are the goal of putin's decade-long efforts to demand changes in NATO that would weaken the Alliance to the point where it would not be able to deter or defeat future russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
At the same time, the report indicates that Putin is unlikely to make concessions, since he will not stop pursuing his goal to control Ukraine and weaken NATO, unless he is decisively defeated.
The analyzed sources of information note that russian public persons can imitate interest in concessions regarding Ukraine's place in Western institutions, trying to encourage the West to advance concessions regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Reports of putin's openness to negotiations through secret channels do not mention russia's readiness to abandon any occupied Ukrainian territory.
Russian officials continue to point out that Putin's maximalist goals do not exclude russia's annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories or additional territorial conquests in Ukraine.
The review adds: Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is a long process that will not become possible immediately after any ceasefire reached by the negotiations, and russia may try to temporarily agree to these requirements in order to strengthen control over the occupied territories as quickly as possible.
Experts emphasize: ISW continues to believe that any ceasefire will benefit russia, giving it time to rebuild and regroup for future offensive campaigns with the same maximalist goals and subsequent territorial capture in Ukraine.
At the same time, experts add that "there is no reason to assess that Putin would not renege on any commitment to permit Ukraine to integrate into Western political, economic, and military institutions as long as the Russian military can pursue his objectives to prevent Ukraine from doing so.”
At the same time, they remind: putin has already violated russia's previous obligations not to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, taken in 1991 and 1994.
Key ISW Takeaways for January 26:
- The kremlin and U.S. officials rejected rumors about russian president vladimir putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the kremlin that russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.
- russian demands for Ukrainian “neutrality” and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on putin’s behalf that putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time.
- russian president vladimir putin reiterated boilerplate kremlin narratives that blame Ukraine for the war while also highlighting russian forces in the Soledar direction.
- The circumstances of the January 24 crash of a russian Il-76 military transport aircraft in Belgorod Oblast remain unclear.
- The European Union (EU) will provide Ukraine with an additional five billion euros to meet “urgent military needs” in the near future.
- The russian ministry of defense (MoD) continues efforts to expand russia’s influence and subsume previous Wagner Group operations in Africa.
- russia reportedly imported USD 1.7 billion worth of advanced microchips and semiconductors in 2023, primarily from the West, skirting Western sanctions intended to deprive russia of such technology.
russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements throughout the theater.
Elements of moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin’s alleged personal private military company (PMC) may have deployed to Ukraine.
- russian opposition media reported on January 26 that Viktor Filonov, a russian soldier in the 234th Airborne Regiment (76th VDV Division) serving in Ukraine, adopted a Ukrainian child from occupied Donetsk Oblast.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.