Russian troops may intensify efforts to capture Kupiansk in the Kharkiv Region over the coming weeks, but are not ready for large-scale offensive operations in the Kharkiv Region.
This is stated in the text of the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment as of January 5, 2024 of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to military analysts, the russians have a group of forces in the area that looks less degraded than other russian groups. Russian troops seem to have conditions that contribute to the activation of operations on the Kupiansk axis (Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions).
The russians intend to obtain territorial achievements in areas that are more important from an operational point of view than those areas that russian troops are now trying to capture.
Ukrainian officials said that russian troops are aiming to capture Kupiansk and Borova (35 km west of Svatove) in the winter of 2024.
ISW reports that the capture of these cities is likely to displace Ukrainian troops from the eastern bank of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv Region and create conditions for future russian offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The pace of russian operations on the Kupiansk axis and the obvious configuration of russian forces in the occupied Luhansk and Kharkiv Regions generally do not indicate the approach of the russian offensive operation along the entire Kupiansk-Lyman line.
Military analysts noted that at the moment, russian troops have not accumulated enough forces in the Belgorod Region to launch large-scale offensive operations anywhere in the north or northeast of the Kharkiv Region.
Ukrainian officials did not publicly report a sudden build-up of russian forces on the Kupiansk axis.
Russian troops appear to be gradually recovering units that suffered significant losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022 and the failed russian offensive in the winter-spring of 2023. The russian command intends to use these relatively well-rested and restored units to intensify local offensive operations, which began in October 2023.
Russian troops operating on the Kupiansk axis, consisting mainly of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army (both Western Military District), have not actively participated in major offensive operations since the culmination of the russian winter-spring offensive in April 2023.
Russian regular troops on the Kupiansk axis are transferred mainly from the Western Military District and thus have a certain organizational consistency, unlike russian troops in other parts of Ukraine, which are often transferred from various military districts and airborne units. The relative coherence of the group of forces of the russian Armed Forces on the Kupiansk axis provides more effective command and control of these forces.
It remains unclear whether these elements of the russian Armed Forces are capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations that would be much more effective than the disorganized and expensive russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
The British edition of The Telegraph reported on January 4 that an unnamed source "close" to the Ukrainian military said that russian troops could conduct a "ground offensive" on January 15. The spokesman for the command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fitio, in response to the Telegraph article on January 5, said that the Ukrainian military did not record changes in the composition of russian troops in the Kharkiv Region or in the territory of russia bordering the Kharkiv Region, and that russian troops continue offensive operations in the Synkivka area in order to capture Kupiansk.
Chairman of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration Oleh Syniehubov also responded to Telegraph, noting that russian troops are not concentrating in the Kharkiv Region in preparation for a large-scale offensive, and that the intensity of russian attacks on the Kupiansk axis has decreased over the past three days due to poor weather conditions. Syniehubov noted that russian troops use the slow pace of operations caused by poor weather conditions to transfer reinforcements to the front line, as well as to prepare and coordinate units.
Fitio and Syniehubov’s comments are consistent with the ISW assessment that russian troops can intensify offensive operations, but not launch a full-scale offensive operation with the existing group of forces on the Kupiansk axis. Russian troops may be conducting a gradual build-up as Ukrainian officials reported that as of October 2023, the russian military had concentrated more than 100,000 troops on the Kupiansk and Lyman axes.
Key takeaways of the ISW for January 5:
- Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupiansk, Kharkiv Region, in the coming weeks and have a grouping of forces in the area that appears to be less degraded than russian groupings responsible for offensive efforts elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against russian targets in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai on the night of January 4 to 5.
- Russian forces conducted Shahed 131/136 drone strikes and missile strikes against frontline areas in Ukraine overnight on January 5.
- Germany announced a new military assistance package to Ukraine on January 4.
- The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will convene on January 10 and discuss russia’s reported use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine, a likely violation of UNSC resolutions.
- Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov strangely offered to exchange 20 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for lifting sanctions against his family members.
- The moscow Arbitration Court ordered Google to unblock four YouTube channels belonging to russian state-affiliated channel 5TV on January 5, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
- Russian forces made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka as positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
- International sanctions are reportedly impeding russia’s Su-34 aircraft production.
- The Kremlin continues to solidify federal administrative oversight of local and regional occupation administrations in occupied Ukraine.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on January 3, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced that the russian occupiers were continuing their offensive in the Kupiansk and Bakhmut axes and regrouping on the Lyman axis.
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