Russia will continue carrying out large-scale attacks on Ukraine – ISW

Experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that russia will not stop and will continue to inflict large-scale strikes on Ukraine, as happened on December 29.

This is stated in another review by ISW specialists.

According to ISW, on the morning of December 29, russian forces carried out the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The report said the series of strikes carried out by russian forces on December 29 appeared to be the culmination of months of russian experimentation with various combinations of drones and missiles, as well as attempts to test Ukraine's air defenses.

Analysts recall that over the past few months, russian forces have carried out a series of missile and drone strikes of various scales, using various combinations of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

According to ISW's October 21 assessment, russian forces are likely to diversify the mix of missiles, cruise bombs, and drones used in the strike series to find weaknesses in Ukrainian air defense and optimize a strike package similar to the one russian forces launched on December 29.

Russia likely deliberately stockpiled a variety of missiles during the fall and early winter of 2023 in order to create a more powerful strike series and apply lessons learned during recent reconnaissance and probing missions, namely the use of Shahed drones to bypass Ukraine's air defense system and using missiles to cause maximum damage to the intended targets.

Experts stress that russia will continue to launch large-scale strikes against Ukraine in an attempt to undermine Ukrainian morale and Ukraine's ability to sustain its military efforts against russia.

ISW Key Findings for December 29:

• Russian forces conducted the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion on the morning of December 29.
• The strike package that russian forces launched on December 29 appears to be a culmination of several months of russian experimentation with various drone and missile combinations and efforts to test Ukrainian air defenses.
• Russia will continue to conduct strikes against Ukraine at scale in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort against russia.
• Current russian missile and drone reserves and production rates likely do not allow russian forces to conduct regular large-scale missile strikes but likely do allow for more consistent drone strikes, which can explain the recent pattern of russian strike packages.
• The Kremlin's efforts to sufficiently mobilize russia's defense industrial base (DIB) in support of its wartime objectives, including large-scale strike series, may been more successful than Western officials previously assessed due in part to russia's ability to procure military equipment from its partners and the redistribution of russia's resources for military production purposes.
• Russian forces have likely routinely attempted to draw and fix limited Ukrainian air defense systems away from the front, and the russian strikes on December 29 follow recent indications that Ukrainian air defenses may be presenting significant challenges to russian aviation operations along the frontline.
• Western aid remains vital for Ukraine's ability to defend against russian strikes, and the end of such aid would likely set conditions for an expanded russian air campaign In Ukraine.
• Western leaders largely viewed the massive russian strike as evidence that Putin's maximalist goals in Ukraine remain unchanged, in line with ISW's long-standing assessment that Putin is not genuinely interested in a ceasefire or any sort of negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
• Russian forces made recent confirmed advances northeast of Bakhmut and south of Avdiivka as positional engagements continued across the entire line of contact.
• The russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 29 that it has completed russia's autumn 2023 conscription cycle, which began on October 1.
• Russia continues the forced integration of occupied areas of Ukraine into the russian system using social services and infrastructure restoration projects.

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