On December 15, russian troops continued localized offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinka and achieved confirmed successes there.
This is stated in the daily report of the American Institute for the Study of War.
According to the ISW report, on December 15, russian troops continued localized offensive operations near Bakhmut and achieved confirmed successes. Geolocation footage released on December 11 shows that russian troops recently advanced northwest of Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut).
Russian sources increasingly characterize the localized russian offensive operation around Bakhmut as an operation to encircle Chasiv Yar (12 km west of Bakhmut). Russian military bloggers described the russian attacks west of Bakhmut in the area of Bohdanivka and Khromove and south of Bakhmut in the area of Klishchiivka and Andriivka as an organized offensive on Chasiv Yar.
They also noted that surrounding Chasiv Yar will be difficult due to the large Ukrainian fortifications and the location of the village at a tactical height. The ISW estimates that the russian forces are at least nine kilometers from Chasiv Yar.
On December 15, russian troops continued the offensive in the area of Avdiivka and advanced. Geolocation footage released on December 15 shows that russian troops advanced near Stepove (3 km north of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).
Russian military bloggers claimed that russian troops advanced near the railway line north of Stepove and had recently seized positions in the forest zone north of Stepove.
On December 15, russian troops continued offensive operations west and southwest of the city of Donetsk and achieved confirmed successes. Geolocation footage released on December 13 shows that russian troops advanced in western Mariinka (west of the city of Donetsk).
Ukrainian and russian sources said Ukrainian troops struck occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Region, on December 14. Geolocation footage published on December 14 and 15 shows a powerful fire in two places of Mariupol, including the Port City shopping center. Advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko said that the second Ukrainian strike was inflicted on the Port City shopping center, where russian troops stored military equipment, including components of the air defense systems.
Key ISW Takeaways for December 15:
- German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian regions throughout 2024-2026.
- Russian foreign minister sergei lavrov threateningly urged Ukraine to negotiate with russia sooner rather than later in framing consistent with the ISW assessment that russia intends to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine through military means.
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published an op-ed entitled “There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine” on December 15, wherein he argues that Ukrainian military objectives remain feasible despite increasingly pessimistic discussions in the West.
- Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 14 to 15.
- Finnish authorities closed Finland’s border checkpoints with russia again on December 15 amid continued russian hybrid warfare efforts to orchestrate an artificial migrant crisis.
- Germany announced new military and humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine on December 14.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupiansk, northeast and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk Region - Zaporizhia Region border area, and in western Zaporizhia Region and made confirmed advances in several areas.
- Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 14 that “Grom” special units (elite anti-drug special units of the russian ministry of internal affairs [MVD]) will fully transition to being subordinated to Rosgvardia in early 2024.
- Russian president vladimir putin highlighted russia’s intention to build high-speed railways in occupied Ukraine, likely hours after Ukrainian partisans damaged a key railway line in occupied Zaporizhia Region.
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