Aggressor preparing new massive assault on Avdiivka - ISW

Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzing the collected data, note that the Russians are preparing for the "third series of larger assaults near Avdiivka" and the "third massive assault on Avdiivka." This is stated in the report on the official ISW portal.

Russian troops continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on November 3 and achieved confirmed successes on the northern flank of Avdiivka.

Geolocated footage released on November 3 indicates that russian troops advanced southwest from Krasnohorivka (4 km north of Avdiivka) to the railway line north of Avdiivka.

The Ukrainian General Staff said that Ukrainian troops continue to resist russian offensives near Avdiivka and repelled more than 17 russian attacks near Stepove (3 km north of Avdiivka), Pivnichne (6 km west of Avdiivka), Tonenke (7 km west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Later, a spokesman for the Tavria group of Ukrainian troops, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, said that there were no active hostilities near Avdiivka, but Ukrainian troops expected an "aggravation of the situation" in the area.

Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said that russian troops are conducting intensive shelling of Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka, and infantry battles continue north and south of the city.

A russian military correspondent claims that as of November 3, russian troops made an indefinite advance southeast of Avdiivka.

In addition, russian sources claimed on November 2 and 3 that the invaders advanced north and west of Krasnohorivka, in the direction of Novokalynove (8 km northwest of Bakhmut), as well as in the Stepove area and broke through the Ukrainian defense in the area of Vesele (4 km northeast of Avdiivka).

Also, russian military correspondents claimed that fighting continues near the Avdiivka Coke Plant, the southern and southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka and Opytne (4 km south of Avdiivka).

The Ukrainian military observer said that russian troops are quickly building fortifications in rear areas close to the areas of the alleged offensive in the area of ​ ​ Avdiivka in order to be able to quickly put reserves into battle.

The report added that Ukrainian officials and russian sources said russian troops were preparing for a third series of major assaults near Avdiivka.

Barabash stated that russian forces were concentrating manpower and equipment for the third massive assault on Avdiivka, and that russian forces were likely to concentrate their offensive operations at the Avdiivka Coke Plant in the northern part of Avdiivka.

A russian military correspondent noted that russian troops near Avdiivka were conducting tactical regrouping, and also called the Avdiivka Coke Plant the goal of potential future russian offensive operations.

Barabash stated that russian troops would resume larger-scale offensive operations when the ground near Avdiivka dried up after several recent downpours.

At the same time, russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Avdiivka on November 3, but did not advance.

Key ISW findings for November 3:

• Russian forces conducted a notably larger series of drone strikes throughout Ukraine on November 3.
• The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on November 3, primarily aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the russian military command for failing to establish long-term training capabilities because it is keeping skilled commanders and soldiers at the front and leaving inexperienced careerists to train new recruits and officers.
• Alleged long-time allies of russian president vladimir putin are reportedly financing two russian ministry of defense–subordinated private military companies that have subsumed former Wagner Group operations in Africa.
• Wagner elements in Syria will reportedly transfer Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide to Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah.
• Dagestani officials claimed they would punish those who participate in and organize alleged future demonstrations, in contrast to calls for leniency for those participating in the October 29 antisemitic riots.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s continued appeals to Chechen nationalists likely aim to solidify domestic support without disrupting his appearance as a steadfast supporter of russian president vladimir putin.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, near Vuhledar, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers began advertising recruitment into an “elite regiment” in Moscow Oblast and offering recruits one-million-ruble (about USD 10,900) salaries.
• Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova continued attempts to discredit information about russia’s deportation of Ukrainian children.

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