Russia transfers sends new forces to Avdiyivka despite heavy losses – ISW

The aggressor country of the russian federation is sending new forces to Avdiyivka in the Donetsk Region. However, it has suffered heavy losses there and is having difficulty storming the positions of the Defense Forces.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Military analysts note that, according to russian "military personnel," on October 22, no significant changes occurred on the front on the Avdiyivka Axis. The invaders would probably stop again after a failed major offensive that suffered heavy casualties.

The russian "war corps" claims that Ukrainian forces "suddenly" counterattacked on the Pisky Axis (8 km southwest of Donetsk) and pushed russian troops out of positions in the area. Another "military officer" says that the statements about the advance of Ukrainian troops in the area of Pisky and Opytne (4 km south of Avdiyivka) do not correspond to reality.

According to the geolocation footage published on October 21, the occupiers have recently slightly advanced to the southeast of Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiyivka). According to the russians, their troops have not completely "cleared" the territory of the Avdiyivka waste dump, and this territory is currently a disputed "grey" zone.

A blogger associated with the Kremlin claims difficulties that may contribute to the "positional stalemate" of the offensive operations of the russian federation on the Avdiyivka Axis. In particular, on a static front line with a large number of personnel and fortified areas on both sides, it is difficult to wage a maneuverable war.

At the same time, Ukrainian drones and other high-precision weapons made armored vehicles increasingly vulnerable and made ground attacks more difficult. At the same time, the invaders have difficulty overcoming the Ukrainian minefields near Avdiyivka. They cannot completely destroy the material and technical base of the Armed Forces, allowing the Ukrainian command to quickly transfer personnel to critical areas.

Russian sources previously indicated that Ukrainian defensive fortifications pose a serious problem for the advance around Avdiyivka. The Armed Forces of Ukraine faced similar challenges in the south of Ukraine in the first weeks of the counteroffensive. However, it is not yet clear whether the russians will be able to adapt to these conditions, as Ukrainian forces did after the first setbacks in June 2023.

Ukrainian sources add that the enemy continues to transfer personnel to the Avdiyivka Axis to support offensive efforts despite significant losses. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson for the Tavria Operational and Strategic Troops Group, said that the enemy is transferring personnel from the territory of russia directly to the Avdiyivka Axis to compensate for the loss of personnel.

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets added that the russian military command recently transferred several russian regiments mobilized in this axis. In his opinion, this shows that russia does not plan to stop operations on this axis.

According to him, the russian military also transferred units of the 57^th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6^th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3^rd Army Corps of the Western Military District to the Spartak-Yakivka-Minerale-Kashtanov area (4 km south-5 km southeast of Avdiyivka).

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on October 21, the spokesperson for the joint press center of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Troops Group, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, said that the activity of russian troops near Avdiyivka has somewhat decreased.

On October 19, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, visited the positions of the Ukrainian military on the Avdiyivka area and the Kupiyansk Axes.

On October 19, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that the occupiers had suffered unjustified losses in their attempts to storm Avdiyivka.

Meanwhile, the Defense Intelligence explained the importance of Avdiyivka for Ukraine: Avdiyivka is the gateway to Donetsk and the whole of the Donetsk Region. Despite the difficulties, the defense forces of Ukraine are inflicting heavy losses in manpower and equipment on the russian occupiers.

To request a correction, please send an email.