Business, despite the full-scale war, for the second quarter in a row expects business activity to grow in the next 12 months.
This is evidenced by the data of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Against the background of the stable functioning of the power system, respondents continued to forecast an increase in the production of goods and services, as well as were positive about the development of their own enterprises.
At the same time, inflation and exchange rate expectations continued to improve.
The business activity expectations index (BAEI) was unchanged from the second quarter of 2023 (hereinafter - the second quarter) and amounted to 104.5%.
Among the factors of optimism are the increase in positive expectations for investment costs for machines and equipment, the total volume of sales of products of own production and the mitigation of negative estimates for investment costs for construction work.
At the same time, negative estimates for the number of employees increased.
For the second quarter in a row, the business continues to forecast growth in the production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months: the response balance was 9.8% compared to 17.3% in the second quarter.
Enterprises expect growth in most areas and types of economic activity, the size of the number of employees, as well as most areas.
Inflation expectations continued to improve: in the first quarter of 2023, expected annual inflation was 14.8% compared to 15.7% in the previous quarter. The proportion of respondents expecting inflation below 15.0% rose to 52.2% from 46.6% in the previous survey.
According to 83.7% of respondents, military actions remain the most significant proinflationary factor.
A slight increase in the impact of the exchange rate factor is expected (1.6 p.p. to 56.3%).
For the third time in a row, the influence of the "tax change" factor is expected to increase most compared to others (by 5.9 p.p. to 21.8%).
Expectations about the devaluation of the national currency continued to weaken: the average value of the exchange rate, which respondents expect in 12 months, is 40.00 UAH/USD (in the previous quarter - 40.43 UAH/USD).
More than half of respondents (56.5% compared to 44.3% in the second quarter) expect that the hryvnia exchange rate in the next 12 months will not exceed 40.00 UAH/USD.
Despite the positive trends, the current financial economic condition of enterprises remains weak, and the overall assessment is negative: the response balance was "minus" 5.8% compared to "minus" 11.1% in the second quarter.
At the same time, the business maintained positive estimates of the expected financial and economic condition of its own enterprises in the next 12 months: the response balance is 6.0% (in the second quarter of 2023 - 9.6%).
The enterprises expect improvement in the financial and economic condition of the vast majority of economic activities, the most optimistic in their estimates of the construction and manufacturing enterprises are the balance of responses of 15.0% and 13.2%, respectively.
Survey participants continue to expect an increase in sales of products, including on the foreign market: response balances - 16.8% and 10.6%, respectively (in the second quarter - 14.5% and 10.9%, respectively).
The total volume of sales of products is expected by respondents of all economic activities, most of all - trade, manufacturing and agriculture (response balance 25.2%, 22.3% and 19.6%, respectively).
For the second quarter in a row, enterprises have positive estimates on the change in the level of investment costs for machines and equipment: a balance of responses of 8.8% (in the second quarter - 4.5%).
The quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 29, 2023.
652 enterprises from 21 regions of the country took part in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson Regions).
Among the surveyed enterprises 21.5% are companies of wholesale and retail trade, 18.6% - manufacturing industry, 14.4% - agriculture, 12.9% - transport and communications, 7.2% - mining industry, 4.8% - energy and water supply, 3.1% - construction, 17.6% - others; 31.9% of respondents are large enterprises, 38.7% are medium, 29.4% are small.
The survey results reflect only the opinion of respondents - managers of enterprises, and not estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months.
It is calculated according to the results of surveys of enterprises as the arithmetic mean of the balance of answers regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, the total volumes of sales of products of its own production, investment costs for construction work, investment costs for machines, and equipment, the number of employees.
The index value of more than 100 means an advantage in the society of positive economic moods, below 100 - negative economic moods.
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